Macro trading – or playing the market by trying to forecast major economic trends – has become increasingly popular following the housing market crash and financial crisis. But with a slew of unexpected market happenings this year (oil plummeting, a strong dollar, treasury yields going even lower, etc.) macro hasn’t been the investors’ best friend. And that means the big name investors – the so called smart money who’ve tried to play the macro trends – have gotten burned… while the little guy may be getting the last laugh.

Case in point: Fortress Investments’ $3 billion macro fund has lost some 9% this year, half of that in October alone. We asked Greg Zuckerman, a special reporter at the Wall Street Journal and author of “The Frackers” about whether macro investing as a trend is on its way out.

“After the financial crisis, the housing crisis, everyone said, ‘I’m going to be a macro trader; I’m going to figure out where the world is going,’ and it’s a really difficult thing to do, to figure out Japan, the dollar, treasuries. And that’s what these guys try,” he said. “Once in awhile you get a George Soros who can figure it out, but…” For example, says Zuckerman, take treasuries. “Who would have thought treasuries would rally this year and yields would go even lower?” said Zuckerman.

When Zuckerman talks macro misses, he’s talking about some of the biggest names on Wall Street. “If you look at any big brand name hedge fund that does macro investing – Tudor, Moore, all kind of big names on Wall Street – they’re struggling to make any money,” he said. “It’s the stock guys that are doing well this year. Kind of the mom and pop long mutual funds. So once again the big guys aren’t as smart as we’d assume.”

But even though the big guys’ strategies aren’t working, don’t expect any earthquakes on Wall Street. Sticking with the Fortress example, Zuckerman said, “So far I’m not hearing investors talking about pulling substantial amounts [of money out] but year end they’re going to get some redemption. They’ve rebounded nicely in the past from tough years it’s not clear they can keep doing that but they brought in a new co-manager for this big fund so we’ll see if he can help.”

So far the bad calls have led to smaller losses for firms, nothing major. “There hasn’t been that much pain that has sort of crippled a firm,” said Zuckerman. “There’s been a lot incremental losses where… a lot of people thought oil would stay at $90, $100 a barrel,” he added. “So a lot of smart guys have felt pain but nobody’s going under just yet.”

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