It has been about a month since the last earnings report for State Street Corporation (STT). Shares have added about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is State Street due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
State Street's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenue Rise Y/Y
State Street’s third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $2.26 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.08. The bottom line grew 17.1% from the prior-year quarter.
Results were primarily aided by growth in fee revenues and NII. Also, the company witnessed improvements in the total AUC/A and AUM balances. However, higher expenses hurt the results to some extent.
After considering notable items, net income available to common shareholders was $682 million, up 71.4% from the year-ago quarter. Our projection for the metric was $620.5 million.
Revenues Improve, Expenses Rise
Total revenues of $3.34 billion increased 11.9% year over year. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 billion.
NII was $723 million, up 15.9% year over year. The rise was driven by higher investment securities yields and loan growth, partially offset by a deposit mix shift. Our estimate for the metric was $667.5 million.
The net interest margin contracted 5 basis points to 1.07%.
Total fee revenues increased 10.8% to $2.62 billion. We estimated the metric to be $2.51 billion.
Non-interest expenses were $2.31 billion, up 5.9%. The rise was due to an increase in almost all cost components, except for the amortization of other intangible assets. Our estimate for the metric was $2.27 billion.
Provision for credit losses was $26 million compared with nil provision reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 11.6% as of Sept. 30, 2024, compared with 11.0% in the corresponding period of 2023. The return on average common equity was 12.0% compared with 7.3% in the year-ago quarter.
Asset Balances Increase
As of Sept. 30, 2024, the total AUC/A was $46.76 trillion, up 16.8% year over year. The rise was driven by higher quarter-end equity market levels, net new business, and client flows. We had projected the metric to be $44.47 trillion.
AUM was $4.73 trillion, up 28.9%, primarily driven by higher quarter-end market levels and net inflows. Our estimate for the metric was $4.49 trillion.
Share Repurchase Update
In the reported quarter, State Street repurchased shares worth $450 million.
2024 Outlook
At the macro level, State Street’s interest rate outlook is largely in line with the current forward curve as of the third-quarter 2024-end.
The company aims to achieve $350-$400 million of servicing fee sales in 2024.
Total fee revenues are now anticipated to be at or slightly above the higher end of up 4-5% range, driven by a solid start to the year and higher average market levels. Earlier, the company had targeted the metric to be in the 4-5% range.
Both servicing fees and management fees are expected to increase, driven by steady business momentum and higher market levels.
Given the solid performance so far and continued benefits from the management actions taken to support NII, the metric is now expected to increase in the range of 4-5%. This is better than the previous guidance of marginal rise.
The average deposit balance is expected to remain at the second-quarter 2024 level in the second half of the year.
The company is undertaking several measures and looking into its business model to improve operating efficiency. It has planned additional productivity savings of almost $500 million driven by further business simplification, process re-engineering and automation, as well as resource optimization. These transformation and productivity initiatives are expected to help State Street save costs this year. However, given the projected rise in revenue-related costs because of improved top-line expectations, adjusted expenses are now anticipated to be up approximately 3.5%. This is up from the prior outlook of almost 3% increase.
The company expects CET1 and Tier 1 leverage ratios to be 10-11% and 5.25-5.75%, respectively.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, State Street has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise State Street has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
State Street belongs to the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry. Another stock from the same industry, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), has gained 0.4% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.
The Bank of New York Mellon reported revenues of $4.65 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.3%. EPS of $1.52 for the same period compares with $1.27 a year ago.
The Bank of New York Mellon is expected to post earnings of $1.52 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for The Bank of New York Mellon. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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