It's shaping up to be a tough period for Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 4.6% short of analyst estimates at US$277m, and statutory earnings of US$0.55 per share missed forecasts by 3.8%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Winpak

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Winpak's twin analysts is for revenues of US$1.14b in 2024. This reflects a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 7.5% to US$2.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.33 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Winpak's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$47.47, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winpak's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Winpak.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Winpak following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Winpak's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.