It's shaping up to be a tough period for Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.5% short of analyst estimates at US$283m, and statutory earnings of US$0.61 per share missed forecasts by 2.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Winpak

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Winpak's dual analysts is for revenues of US$1.13b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 2.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.8% to US$2.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.39 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 5.1% to CA$50.49despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Winpak's earnings by assigning a price premium.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winpak's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.7% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Winpak's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Winpak going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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