The U.S. presidential election is just days away. Which candidate is better for the stock market? Surprisingly, we don't think it matters that much. This theory is backed up by historical data. Our review of presidential cycles reveals that the primary driver of stock success is market fundamentals - how well the economy is doing, if inflation is maintained at the low 2%-3% levels, if the labor market remains strong and unemployment doesn't creep up, and if interest rates are lower. This is the best case for stocks and outweighs whoever is in the White House. That said, there are some nuances and implications for individual sectors. For our list this week and next, we look at several sectors and how they might be impacted by America's choice for the next president. Below, we look at the Industrial and Financial sectors and how they might perform under either candidate.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Back on October 9, we started to talk about Information Technology waking up after three months of technical basing by some in the sector. We wrote the following. 'Technology was led by a few major semiconductors, including NVDA (+4%) and AVGO (+3%). NVDA has been tracing out a bullish continuous inverse head-and-shoulders, while AVGO has been forming a complex double bottom since the middle of June. Both are very close to completing these patterns and possibly breaking out to all-time highs. One concern about jumping back on the semi train is that we are not seeing other stocks completing bases and many are nowhere near highs. That can be rectified, but the strongest industry moves occur when the majority of stocks are participating.' Little did we know how prophetic those last two sentences were and in no way did we expect the obliteration that some of the semis got on October 15. ASML was destroyed, plunging over 16% after providing disappointing 2025 guidance. It was the company's worst day since the pandemic and, prior to that, during the IT wreck in 2002. KLAC plummeted 15%, and LRCX and AMAT both plunged 11%. Volume was huge and it almost felt like a capitulatory selloff. But those usually come after an extended selloff. Because the three largest semis held in there (NVDA, TSM, AVGO), losing only between 2.6% and 4.5%, the major semi ETFs (SOXX, SMH) fell only around 5%. While the major indices lost between 0.7% and 1.4%, NYSE breadth was only slightly negative at -157, this as the selling was concentrated in Information Technology, Energy, Healthcare, and Industrials. In addition, NYSE advancing volume/declining volume was neutral at 50%.

The Goldman Sachs Group provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Goldman reorganized its businesses in 4Q22 into three operating segments: Asset & Wealth Management, Global Banking & Markets, and Platform Solutions, with the latter including transaction banking and consumer partnerships.