Paychex Inc. is a provider of payroll, human resource, retirement, and insurance services to small and medium-size firms. Paychex's operations are primarily domestic; however, the company does have some offices in Europe. The company has approximately over 16,000 employees. The shares are a component of the S&P 500 Index.

The big banks kick off earnings season this week, while the economic focus is on inflation with the CPI report. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq both eked out a positive return, with each ending higher by 0.1%; the S&P 500 was barely better having gained 0.2%. For the year, the Dow is higher by 12%, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both popped by 21%. On the economic calendar, key inflation data is due on Thursday in the form of the CPI report. In August, CPI printed at 2.5% and core CPI was 3.2%. We see CPI slowing to 2.3% for September and core inching lower to 3.1%. In other economic news, the U.S. Trade Deficit is reported on Tuesday; the minutes from the last Fed rate meeting are released on Wednesday; and on Friday, the Producer Price index comes out, providing an update on wholesale inflation. As well, multiple Fed officials speak publicly. On the earnings calendar, some of the country's biggest banks start things off with reports on Friday. The list includes JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York, and BlackRock. Now that the Federal Reserve has shifted its monetary policy, investors likely will be expecting guidance on how lower interest rates might stimulate loan growth. Also reporting next week are PepsiCo and Domino's Pizza. Last week, data on the jobs market was surprisingly strong. Nonfarm payrolls printed at 254,000 for September versus a revised-higher 159,000 in August. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% the month prior. Wall Street took this as a sign that the economy, and especially the labor market, are healthy. Mortgage rates ticked up to 6.12% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices dropped a penny to $3.18 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow forecast for October is 2.5%. The next Fed rate decisions are on November 7 and December 18. For November, odds are at 97% for a 25-basis-point cut, this according to the CME FedWatch tool. Previously, there had been lots of chatter about a bigger cut -- but the strong jobs data from last week seemingly dampened that sentiment. We forecast two more rate cuts by the end of 2024 and three in 2025 -- with all by 25 basis points.

Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management, and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States. The company, founded in 1971, services over 745,000 clients and pays 1 in 12 US private-sector workers. Alongside its traditional payroll services, Paychex offers HCM solutions such as benefits administration and time and attendance software, as well as human resources outsourcing and insurance agency services.

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