The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. Last week, in Part 1 of this series, we made a case that the state of the economy is a bigger driver for Wall Street than who wins and takes over the White House. This week, we add some color to the presidential cycle over a typical four-year term and examine how that cycle affects the market. Historical data suggests that Year 1 is a honeymoon year, with a feeling of optimism that usually is good for stocks. In Year 1, the S&P 500 has been up 14% on average for more than 50 years, going back to 1980. Year 2 is still an up year for stocks, but only by about 5% as some of the challenges of the office surface and midterm elections cause distraction and uncertainty. Year 3 has proven to be the strongest, with stocks up about 15%. As sitting presidents put their candidate hat back on, there is increased spending and often tax breaks. Year 4 dips again, with stocks rising a smaller 4% due to uncertainty about the pending election. This week, in Part 2 of our review of the election and sectors, we look at Energy and Healthcare to see how they might perform under either candidate. While our analysis does look at specific policies, it essentially boils down to the broad approach of the candidates.

First Solar designs and manufactures solar photovoltaic panels, modules, and systems for use in utility-scale development projects. The company's solar modules use cadmium telluride to convert sunlight into electricity. This is commonly called thin-film technology. First Solar is the world’s largest thin-film solar module manufacturer. It has production lines in Vietnam, Malaysia, the United States, and India.

Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company acquires customers directly and through relationships with various solar and strategic partners. The solar systems are constructed either by Sunrun or by Sunrun’s partners and are owned by the company. Sunrun’s customers typically enter into 20- to 25-year agreements to utilize its solar energy system. The company also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking, and solar leads generated to customers.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells direct current optimized inverter systems for solar photovoltaic installations. The company system consists of power optimizers, inverters, and cloud-based monitoring platform and addresses a broad range of solar market segments, from residential solar installations to commercial and small utility-scale solar installations. The company sells its products directly to solar installers, engineering, procurement, and construction firms and indirectly to solar installers through distributors and electrical equipment wholesalers.