Based in Pontiac, Michigan, UWM Holdings Corp. is a wholesale mortgage originator that focuses on broker services rather than direct-to-consumer loans. It generates revenue from three segments: loan production, loan servicing, and interest income. UWMC is the leading wholesale mortgage lender in the U.S., with a mid 4s% share of the wholesale market and acts as a conduit for mortgage brokers in all 50 states. The company has approximately 8,000 employees.

Stocks are flat. Earnings news is driving individual stocks. Wall Street is waiting on Fed Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow as part of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Based in Pontiac, Michigan, UWM Holdings Corp. is a wholesale mortgage originator that focuses on broker services rather than direct-to-consumer loans. It generates revenue from three segments: loan production, loan servicing, and interest income. UWMC is the leading wholesale mortgage lender in the U.S., with a 44% share of the wholesale market, and acts as a conduit for mortgage brokers in all 50 states. The company has over 6,000 employees.

Monday Tee Up: Jobs Friday Jobs data is out this week. Economists and the Fed will be looking to see if the labor market is slowing, given the longer period of elevated interest rates. The earnings calendar is light, though there are some late stragglers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week lower by 1%, the S&P 500 was down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%. For the year, the DJIA is higher by 3%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq have both gained 11%. On the economic calendar, the big day is Friday, with the release of jobs data. For April, nonfarm payrolls came in at 175,000. We forecast a slight decline to 168,000 for May. The unemployment rate printed at 3.9% in April. We expect no change in May. In other economic news, Monday brings data on construction spending; Tuesday, job openings; and on Wednesday, ADP employment and the U.S. trade deficit will be reported. On the earnings calendar, CrowdStrike reports on Tuesday; on Wednesday, Lululemon, Dollar Tree, Campbell Soup, and Five Below; and on Thursday, J.M. Smucker and NIO Inc. As of last Friday, 98% of the S&P 500 companies had reported for 1Q24. Earnings were 8% higher than in the same quarter last year, which is better than what was expected before the reporting season began. Communication Services, up 43%, and Consumer Discretionary, up 27%, have performed the best. Healthcare and Energy, both down 24%, have performed the worst. Last week, mortgage rates moved back over the 7% mark, to 7.03% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices were unchanged at $3.58 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is now forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator for April forecasts 3.36%. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision comes next week, on June 12. Pretty much no one expects a rate change at that meeting. After that, the next meeting is at the end of July, with odds at 16% for a rate cut. Then in mid-September, the odds pop up to 55% for a cut. Like the Fed, we are data sensitive. At this time, we still expect two rate cuts in 2024, one in September and one in December. We also forecast two cuts in 2025, both in the first half of the year. All four cuts are forecast to be by 25 basis points.