The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that the U.S. economy generated 12,000 new jobs in October, well below the consensus of 110,000. Our forecast was 60,000 and reflected our baseline forecast of 160,000 offset by a temporary reduction of 100,000 from hurricanes and the strike at Boeing. The BLS noted that strike activity reduced manufacturing employment, but said that it couldn't quantify the net effect of the hurricanes. September's payrolls were revised lower by 31,000 to 223,000. August was revised down by 81,000 to 78,000. Overall revisions to past results took the three-month average down to 104,000. The 12-month average was 203,000 before this morning's release. This report holds additional gravity because it is the last major economic indicator before the presidential election and next week's Fed meeting. The October unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with our estimate and consensus. Average hourly earnings increased 13 cents month to month and are 4.0% higher year over year (compared to 3.9% in September). The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. Job gains continued to trend higher in healthcare and government. Employment showed little or no change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. After the report, stock futures rose and the yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly. Futures contracts suggested a 95% probability that the Fed will reduce the funds target by 25 basis points next Thursday, to 4.5%-4.75% compared with a probability of 93% before the report. The probability that the funds target will be lower by 50 basis points or more from current levels after the December meeting was 76%, up from 71% before the release.

Visa Inc. operates the world's largest electronic payments network, providing processing services and payment product platforms, including credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, under the brands Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS. Visa/PLUS is one of the world's largest ATM networks, offering cash access in local currency in more than 200 countries and territories.

The major indices are lower with the Nasdaq down more than 2%. The 10-year Treasury note is up 6 bps at 4.33%. Oil is up 1% at $69 per barrel. Inflation indicator PCE mostly came in line with expectations. Headline PCE edged a bit lower, rising at a pace of 2.1% for September, versus 2.2% in August. Core PCE held at 2.7% for September matching August.

Visa is the largest payment processor in the world. In fiscal 2023, it processed almost $15 trillion in total volume. Visa operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 160 currencies. Its systems are capable of processing over 65,000 transactions per second.