Monday Tee Up: Here Comes Walmart The focus this week flips back to inflation and the state of the consumer. Key inflation data will come out as will perhaps the most-telling earnings report related to the consumer -- Walmart. Wall Street is wondering if the Fed has been right on interest rates and can still achieve a soft landing and avoid recession. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.6%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 5%, the S&P is up 12%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 12%. On the economic calendar, the big day is Wednesday, when inflation data comes out in the form of CPI. In June, CPI posted at 3.0%. Core CPI was 3.1%. We see July matching those rates. On Tuesday, wholesale inflation will grab the headlines when PPI is updated. On Thursday, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization all will be released, and on Friday, Consumer Sentiment and Housing Starts come out. The earnings calendar is winding down but some big releases are due in this week. On Tuesday, Home Depot and On Holding report. On Wednesday, Cisco and UBS Group. And on Thursday, Walmart, Applied Materials, Alibaba, and Deere. Earnings are coming in 12.4% higher this quarter than a year ago (this after some 91% of S&P 500 companies have reported). Expectations were for 8%-12% earnings growth for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. Last week, mortgage rates fell a big 26 basis points (bps) to 6.47% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell four cents to $3.45 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.9%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 2.74% for August CPI. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is on September 18, with odds at 100% for a rate cut. Of that, 51% expect a 25-bps cut and 49% expect a 50-bps cut. That data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool. There are then two more Fed rate meetings this year, on November 7, two days after the U.S. presidential election, and December 18.

Yum! Brands owns three of the most popular fast-food brands in the world: KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. The company and its franchisees operate more than 59,000 restaurants in 140 countries and territories. YUM is a leader in multibranding, offering combinations of its KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut brands at single locations. It has spun off its China business into a separately traded company. With a market cap of about $38.5 billion, YUM is generally classified as a large-cap growth stock.

Yum Brands is a US-based restaurant operator featuring a portfolio of four brands: KFC (29,900 global units at year-end 2023), Pizza Hut (19,866 units), Taco Bell (8,564 units), and The Habit Burger Grill (381 units). With $64 billion in 2023 systemwide sales, the firm is the second-largest restaurant company in the world behind McDonald’s ($130 billion), ahead of Restaurant Brands International ($43 billion) and Starbucks ($29 billion). Yum is 98% franchised, with the largest franchisee, wide-moat Yum China, spun out in 2016, after which Yum China agreed to pay 3% royalties to Yum Brands in perpetuity. Yum is the newest evolution of Tricon, formerly a division of PepsiCo, and generates the bulk of its revenue from franchise royalties and marketing contributions.

Yum Brands is a US-based restaurant operator featuring a portfolio of four brands: KFC (29,900 global units at year-end 2023), Pizza Hut (19,866 units), Taco Bell (8,564 units), and The Habit Burger Grill (381 units). With $64 billion in 2023 systemwide sales, the firm is the second-largest restaurant company in the world behind McDonald’s ($130 billion), ahead of Restaurant Brands International and Starbucks ($29 billion). Yum is 98% franchised, with the largest franchisee, Yum China, spun out in 2016 (after which Yum China agreed to pay 3% royalties to Yum Brands in perpetuity). Yum is the newest evolution of Tricon, formerly a division of PepsiCo, and generates the bulk of its revenue from franchise royalties and marketing contributions.