The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. Last week, in Part 1 of this series, we made a case that the state of the economy is a bigger driver for Wall Street than who wins and takes over the White House. This week, we add some color to the presidential cycle over a typical four-year term and examine how that cycle affects the market. Historical data suggests that Year 1 is a honeymoon year, with a feeling of optimism that usually is good for stocks. In Year 1, the S&P 500 has been up 14% on average for more than 50 years, going back to 1980. Year 2 is still an up year for stocks, but only by about 5% as some of the challenges of the office surface and midterm elections cause distraction and uncertainty. Year 3 has proven to be the strongest, with stocks up about 15%. As sitting presidents put their candidate hat back on, there is increased spending and often tax breaks. Year 4 dips again, with stocks rising a smaller 4% due to uncertainty about the pending election. This week, in Part 2 of our review of the election and sectors, we look at Energy and Healthcare to see how they might perform under either candidate. While our analysis does look at specific policies, it essentially boils down to the broad approach of the candidates.

Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of autonomous driving software. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling more affordable vehicles, a sports car, and a robotaxi. Global deliveries in 2023 were a little over 1.8 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network.

Tesla Inc. manufactures and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. The company was founded in 2003 and went public in June 2010 with an initial public offering at $17 per share. Tesla has approximately 49,000 employees. It recently moved its headquarters to Austin, Texas from Palo Alto, California.

The Nasdaq is up at midday, thanks to Tesla and its strong earnings report after the bell last night. The other major indices are flat to down. Bonds are lower with the 10-year Treasury note down 4 bps at 4.20%. Meanwhile, oil is steady at $71 per barrel.