August had a little bit of everything for investors, with a sharp three-day slide to begin the month, a mini flash-crash on August 5, an amazing turnaround and "V" bottom until August 21, and then a sideways pause to finish. We also saw a number of breadth thrusts during the recovery, and generally those are a good thing. As far as the S&P 500 (SPX) is concerned, the formation since the peak on July 16 looks like a bullish "V" bottom with a handle. A break with follow-through above the all-time high of 5,667 would complete the pattern and open the door to a number of possible measured moves based on the size of the formation. A minimum 62%-79% Fibonacci extension targets the 6,010 to 6,105 region; a 100% extension equates to a move to 6,220; and a 127%-162% extension targets the 6,370-6,560 area. If the market fails near the prior high and gives up its recent gains -- which we do not expect -- a double top will be confirmed on a strong break of the August 5 closing low at 5,186. The SPX rose 2.3% in August, the Nasdaq eked out 0.7%, and the QQQ was up 1.1%, All three majors traced out bullish monthly hammer candlesticks. Sector strength was broad and defensive, with Consumer Staples and Real Estate popping 6%, Healthcare and Utilities gaining 5%, Financials up 4.5%, Industrials tacking on 2.8%, Materials adding 2.3%, Communication Services up 1.8%, Technology higher by 0.7%, and Discretionary flat. Energy was the only loser, off 2%. The entire yield curve fell below 4%, with the two-10 inversion at one basis point. The yield curve has been inverted for over two years. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

On Monday, August 5, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell right to its lower channel off the lows in October 2022 and March 2023. Yes, that is the trendline we didn't trust because it was busted twice in October 2023. We also got close (at 5,119) to a 78.6% retracement of the rally from April until July (at 5,107). The SPX cycled into oversold territory at 30 on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), but could become more oversold. The rising 200-day is at 5,012, while the April low is at 4,967. One of our favorite charts is the weekly SPX with the 200-week average and the weekly Bollinger Bands. While we still have some distance, the slightly rising lower band is down near 5,000 as of this writing. A touch/undercut and then a recapture of the lower band generally has indicated an excellent time to buy the index/market. A good confirmation would be a move back over the middle band. But note the failures in 2022's bear market: two times the SPX failed at/near the middle band, while a third move surpassed the middle band but ended up failing The VIX exploded to 66% at the open on August 5, its highest level since the pandemic. The three-day rate-of-change (ROC) was 136%, the highest since early 2018. Since 1990, this is the third-highest three-day ROC. We had a three-day decline of 9% in 2018 and a two-day decline of 6% in 2015. The VIX moves sharply when stocks move lower quickly lower. The three-day SPX decline was 7.3% at the lows on August 5 and ended the day at 6.1%. Both the drops in 2018 and 2015 were followed by a quick rally and then a retest of the lows or a double bottom. Both double bottoms were followed by major rallies that failed.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached record highs on mixed economic news. Although producer prices fell in May, jobless claims rose. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3% and the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The Dow was down 0.2% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. In other news, Tesla shares rose following shareholder approval for Musk's $56 billion pay package. Treasury yields fell, and crude oil and gold were both down slightly.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The first-quarter earnings season has crossed the 90% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 7%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 43%, and Consumer Discretionary, up 26%. On the flipside, Healthcare and Energy, both down 24%, are performing the worst. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season, as this is often a signal for momentum in the months ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q24 EPS reporting season.

The dollar has strengthened in 2024 as the Federal Reserve has moved away from imminent interest rate cuts, the U.S. economy has grown at a solid pace, and the high level of interest rates has attracted global investors into dollar-denominated securities. The greenback has climbed 2.5% on a trade-weighted basis in 2024 and is 17% above its average value since 2000. Looking ahead, we anticipate a relatively stable trading range for the dollar in 2024, for several reasons. For one, the dollar typically tracks GDP growth trends, and we think the U.S. economic expansion is poised to slow in coming quarters due to the Fed's rate hikes. We also expect the higher rates to increase the interest payments as a percentage of GDP from recent lows of 1.5%, putting a modest strain on the U.S. balance sheet; the current rate is 2.4%. Finally, the still-elevated valuation of the greenback implies that other currencies -- and even gold or other commodities -- are possibly undervalued, and we would expect investors such as the petrodollar-fueled sovereign wealth funds to bid up those values at a measured pace over time. For global investors, a higher dollar is a positive factor for export companies (particularly from China), as their goods become relatively cheaper in the global marketplace. But a higher dollar also can generate higher commodity prices, imported inflation, higher interest payments on global borrowings, and (ultimately) trade wars as U.S. exports stall.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

U.S. stocks continue to trend higher as investors are not faced with major economic developments and can focus on earnings reports. Disney (DIS) was down more than 10% in midday trading after the company posted results that showed an overall loss, but adjusted profits that beat the consensus. It expects weaker results this quarter. Peloton (PTON) is up on reports that the company is in talks with private equity firms to buy out the company. The Dow is up 0.1%, and S&P 500 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil is trading above $78 per barrel and gold fell $8 to $2323 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Southern Company (SO); AECOM (ACM); Itron Inc. (ITRI); Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and the Focus List deletions are Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Sempra Energy (SRE).

There was a very nice kick-save by equity bulls on Thursday, as the bears looked emboldened early but failed despite Meta's meltdown and a tick up in rates. And then there was good EPS news after the close, with GOOGL soaring and MSFT popping.

We hate to use overly complicated technical terms to describe the recent price action, but the stock market is acting a little -- squirrely. Or nervous. Or fidgety. Who is going to put up the big money to take prices higher? Are investors still in profit-taking mode for the massive gainers but then rotating to other areas of the market? In the big picture, there hasn't been a negative technical mark on the current uptrend. But there certainly does seem to be some short-term indecision among market participants.

As stocks keep trending higher, insiders continue to exercise restraint. While their defensive posture has stabilized (and indeed lessened a tad) over the past few weeks, it seems that corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners view overall stock valuations as likely extended. That attitude appears to be mirrored in the broader market. Investors are clearly willing to push share prices higher, but the selling days (when they do occur) tend to involve noticeable drops -- suggesting a readiness to withdraw quickly if (if) any bad news has legs. So far, though, that just hasn't been the case, with big down days turning out to be one-day wonders.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

As 2023 ends, there are a number of markets that are sitting at either potentially strong chart support or tough chart resistance. For a chartist and technician, this is like the best of all worlds. We generally look for these times to call for a reversal in a number of strong trends, at least for the short to intermediate term.

With the number of trading days in 2023 dwindling down and the S&P 500 up 15% as of this writing, there is a very high historical probability that the index will add to its gains. Hot money will likely chase the best-performing, highest-relative-strength, and best-looking charts for the rest of 2023.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

The stock market sometimes gives a warning after a large move higher, gets everyone believing that a pullback has finally arrived, and then regroups for a couple of days before the rug is pulled out yet again. On July 27, we saw a pretty ugly reversal in the major indices that looked like the start of a much-anticipated reset. That was not to be, however, with stocks broadly higher on July 28.

Earnings, Employment, Economy: Three Es Keeping Recession at Bay

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $15 billion to define a SMID stock.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 had a narrow-range day after Tuesday's blood bath and held right at the support level we have discussed (in the 3,980 region). This is the location of a convergence of two trendlines -- the 50- and 200-day simple averages, and the 21-week exponential average. Interest rates across the curve also traded in a narrow range, with the two-, five-, and 10-year Treasury yields all tracing out inside days as well as doji candlesticks. These formations represent indecision and many times lead to reversals in the short- to intermediate-term trend. In other words, yields may have peaked, but we certainly would like to see more evidence. And that would certainly help stocks.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching to see whether Mr. Powell strikes a more hawkish tone after last week's post-rate-hike news conference and strong January employment report. Baidu shares jumped 11% on news that the Chinese tech company would launch a new artificial intelligence chatbot, similar to ChatGPT, in March. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose $3 to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1989 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 3Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings (among others) in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks were mostly lower on Monday morning as investors weighed new earnings reports and looked ahead to retail sales data later in the week. Tyson Foods shares rose slightly after the company reported below-consensus fiscal 4Q EPS, but better-than-expected sales. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $89 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1775 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Equinix Inc (EQIX); HubSpot Inc (HUBS); Honeywell International Inc (HON) and the Focus List deletions are Flex Ltd (FLEX); Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST); AECOM (ACM); Splunk Inc (SPLK).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Equinix Inc (EQIX); HubSpot Inc (HUBS); Honeywell International Inc (HON) and the Focus List deletions are Flex Ltd (FLEX); Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST); AECOM (ACM); Splunk Inc (SPLK).

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky -- and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes trends in insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have now come in from 2Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The Bullish Percent Index for the S&P Technology Sector is in "Bear Confirmed" status according to StockCharts.com. This suggests that active managers should focus on risk management in the sector. New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index, the broad market indicator we discussed on Wednesday, remains in "Bull Confirmed" status.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by declines in the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, as investors awaited the July CPI report on Wednesday. Micron Technology shares fell more than 5% after the chipmaker warned of lower demand and cut its fiscal 4Q sales guidance. Vaccine maker Novavax dropped nearly 30% after reporting a wider-than-expected 2Q loss and slashing its full-year sales forecast. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $91 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1808 per ounce.

Stocks have struggled in 2022, but corporate insiders have reacted with increasing optimism in recent weeks as stocks have plumbed new lows. Indeed, given the strength of current insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research, it seems clear that insiders are viewing the current dip as an opportunity.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors awaited new inflation and employment data later in the week, and continued to assess prospects for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. In the Ukraine war, President Zelensky said that he was prepared to discuss neutral status for Ukraine, but only after a Russian troop withdrawal and with appropriate security guarantees. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $106 per barrel, while gold traded near $1938 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors awaited new inflation and employment data later in the week, and continued to assess prospects for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. In the Ukraine war, President Zelensky said that he was prepared to discuss neutral status for Ukraine, but only after a Russian troop withdrawal and with appropriate security guarantees. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $106 per barrel, while gold traded near $1938 per ounce.

With the majority of companies having reported fourth-quarter earnings, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. Almost 1200 insider buy and sell orders met the criteria for inclusion in the latest Weekly Insider Report from Vickers Stock Research. Still, the current level of activity falls short of the robust volumes at this point in the third-quarter earnings-release cycle -- when more than 2100 trades were placed.

10 Investment Themes for 2022: Part 2 of 3

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus Research.

We have adjusted our recommended sector allocations this month. The following reflects our guidance for the calendar first quarter of 2022. We have raised Consumer Discretionary to Market-Weight from Under-Weight, and we have lowered our rating on the Utility sector to Under-Weight from Market-Weight. The rebalancing process takes place four times a year, early in the months of March, June, September and December. Our current Over-Weight sectors are Basic Materials, Financial Services, Healthcare, Industrials, and Technology. Our current Market-Weight sectors are Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Energy, and Real Estate. Our Under-Weight sectors are Consumer Staples and Utilities. Argus suggests that advisors and investors leverage this consistent and comprehensive process to tweak weightings within their balanced equity portfolios.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); AECOM (ACM); Lazard Ltd. (LAZ); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR); General Dynamics Corp. (GD); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Silk Road Medical Inc (SILK).

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the Industrial sector appear well-positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery, and electrical equipment. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 13.5%. It also underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday's selloff despite continued uncertainty about the Omicron variant, the inflation outlook, and the Fed's accelerated tapering plan. Financial and Industrial stocks led the advance. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims rose to 222,000, up from the prior week but below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims fell to 1.956 million, down from the prior week and also below consensus. The data came ahead of the government's November employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 550,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 531,000 in October, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. The Dow rose 1.82%, the S&P 1.42%, and the NASDAQ 0.83%. Crude oil rose 2% to $67 per barrel, while gold fell $15 to $1769 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 2Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning following mixed housing market data and more earnings reports from major retailers. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 0.7% in October to an annualized 1.52 million, led by a sharp 3.9% drop in starts of single-family homes. However, building permits rose 4.0% to an annualized 1.65 million units, above the consensus forecast of 2.8% growth. On the earnings front, Target reported better-than-expected 3Q results despite higher supply-chain costs that weighed on margins. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $79.50 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1865 per ounce.

October was the best month of 2021 (so far) for stocks, and investors spread the wealth across sectors, styles, and sizes (from small- to large-cap). On a sector basis, the best performer in October was Consumer Discretionary. Amazon came up short on EPS guidance and was pummeled last month. But hotels are filling up, airlines are booked, and restaurants are welcoming back patrons with hopes that the Delta surge will be the last big event of the pandemic.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. The Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Market breadth improved in the back half of August, as small- and mid-cap stocks joined large-caps to the upside. But the small- and mid-caps did not see follow through, have backed off since September 2, and have weakened breadth.

Second-quarter earnings announcements are nearly complete, with some 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. The profit recovery from the depths of the pandemic low in 2Q20 was been swift, with earnings growth of 93% in 2Q21, according to Refinitiv. But earnings do not look good just on a relative basis -- the $53.93 projected to be earned by S&P 500 companies for the second quarter is the highest ever for the index. Investors can now turn their attention to the third quarter, when earnings are expected to rise a still-strong 30% year-over-year. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here are 20 BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q21 EPS reporting season.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as the Senate voted to approve the new $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The Labor Department said that U.S. worker productivity rose at a 2.3% annualized rate in 2Q, down from 4.3% in 1Q and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1728 per ounce.

The April nonfarm payrolls report badly missed consensus expectations and signaled that the economic recovery is far from automatic, or even assured. Stocks rose, suggesting that the fundamental event of a major data report can have far-reaching technical impact in the market.

Stocks kept the momentum going in April, and are now up almost 12%, including dividends, in the year-to-date. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season, and have come across many stocks in coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, future dividends, and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks on which we have raised target prices over the past month. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The S&P 500 rallied in March to finish with a 4.2% gain, but it was not straightforward. The ongoing sector shift helped keep investors in the blue chip equity market even as they were ditching last year's stalwarts. Fan-favorite Amazon, for instance, is down 3% year-to-date, while Tesla is down 6%. Long-neglected Energy and Financial Services stocks are out in front, with first-quarter sector gains of 33% and 14%, respectively. Growth-centric sectors Consumer Discretionary and Technology showed late-March strength, however, and are each up about 5% year-to-date.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning, led by the Technology sector, following new employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 793,000 for the week ended February 6, down from a revised 812,000 a week earlier but above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil fell slightly to $58.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1838 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning, led by the Technology sector, following new employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 793,000 for the week ended February 6, down from a revised 812,000 a week earlier but above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil fell slightly to $58.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1838 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have been processed for 3Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid surging coronavirus cases, as the U.S. pandemic death toll rose above 250,000. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 742,000 for the week ended November 14, up from 711,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 700,000. In other data, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 4.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted 6.85 million units, up from 6.57 million in September and above the consensus forecast of 6.45 million. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $41.50 per barrel, while gold fell $14 to $1860 per ounce.