This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market tried its best to rally on July 29, but with major EPS reports, a Fed decision, and an employment report looming, higher prices attracted sellers and the major indices finished flat. The market will either continue lower in the near term or the pullback will end and new highs are just around the corner. We would bet on the former, as there is no indication from the recent price action of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 that the selling is over. While the tech-heavy indices, industries, and mega caps have worked off overbought momentum conditions on a daily and weekly basis, we have not yet cycled into oversold territory on a daily basis. Do we have to? Absolutely not -- but it probably would be healthy. The last time Technology indices/stocks were oversold on a daily basis was on April 19 -- but just barely, with the 14-day relative strength index reaching 30. The last time tech was oversold on a weekly basis was in mid-2022 -- and prior to that, during the pandemic. Long-term relative strength leadership rarely cycles into oversold territory on a weekly or monthly basis except during mega meltdowns and crashes. So there is a smell of panic in Technology land as the 'can't miss' semiconductor stocks are stinking it up. But at least the money fleeing those stocks is being moved into other areas of the market. The NYSE, Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 equal weight, the S&P MidCap 400, the Russell 2000, and the S&P Small Cap 600 continue to catch a bid -- with most remaining near all-time highs. As of this writing, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX $220.58) has cratered almost 17% over the 14 sessions, its largest decline in that time period since June 2022 (which was during a tough bear market for Information Technology). There is a cluster of support near $200, which includes the last low in April, trendline support off the lows since October 2022, and a 38.2% retracement of the bull market. Distribution days on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SOXX continue to add up as we count seven on both ETFs over the past 14 days.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In this edition, online commerce set for acceleration, consolidation; the market may be missing changes afoot at Veolia; an overview of the moat ratings for big biotech firms; and Kraft Heinz, Tyson Foods, and Nutrien.

There's not much movement in U.S. stock markets today. Blue-chip shares are modestly higher, with the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 off slightly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is steady at 4.45%. Gold, oil and Bitcoin are all trading higher today. The European Central Bank made the first move (ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve) by cutting rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% -- its first cut in five years. In the U.S., economists and the Fed are still weighing the evidence to justify that kind of pivot. The data keeps coming but it is starting to lean more and more to making the case for a cut. Elsewhere, weekly unemployment claims increased 8,000 from the past week to 229,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. While that number is higher than the four-week average of 222,250, the jobs market remains healthy from this angle. We will start to worry about the strength of the consumer sector of the economy if claims soar toward 300,000.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Was Thursday's large downside reversal yet another one-day wonder? Strength was seen immediately on Friday, cutting into the weekly losses. The daily chart for the major indices all have a "rolling-over" look, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) appearing to be ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX) for a break lower. As well, the news from the Middle East seems to be getting worse by the day -- but, so far, the U.S stock market and economy seem to be turning a blind eye to the potential implications. Crude oil prices, both WTI and Brent, aren't exploding, but have seen pretty good rallies. WTI hit $87.60/barrel at the end of last week from the low $70s just two months ago, while Brent almost reached $92 last week from $77 in early February.

Monday Tee Up: Here Come the Big Banks

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In the past week, we have had little economic and EPS data, but we have had some interesting price action across the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets. That caught us, as well as others, by surprise. But it is a big world out there and we try to avoid missing the forest for the trees!

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks continued to fall last week, as any positive earnings-related news was overwhelmed by issues that include offsetting disappointing earnings, interest rates, Treasury yields, and volatile geopolitical developments. Turning our attention to insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research, transaction volume remains historically low (and therefore less meaningful) as insiders are broadly sidelined by trading restrictions currently in place. Add it all up, and it is easy to assume there is nothing of interest in Vickers' data this week.

The 2023 Rally Falters

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning as investors weighed more 2Q earnings reports and looked ahead to the Fed's interest rate decision next week. American Express shares fell, despite better-than-expected earnings, on concerns about rising loss provisions and slower card spending in the second half of the year. CSX also fell after the railroad operator reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that were down from the prior year. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose 1% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1961 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

During the weeks leading up to earnings season, we highlighted bullish insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research. In addition, in the month since then, the S&P 500 has advanced by about 5.6%. Now that earnings season is underway, the insider sell/buy ratios from Vickers have weakened. Is it time to get defensive? We took a deeper dive on current insider-sentiment data, and we say no.

In this edition, global oil inventories face future; feeling the internet's backbone; and initiating coverage of Qualys; and Lithium Americas, Bausch & Lomb and Macy's.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In the eight weeks before the start of earnings season, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research was consistently positive. On a scale where any reading below 2.00 is bullish, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio never got higher than 1.99 and was as low as 1.06. That resulted in a peak bullish Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio of 1.71 on October 15, just as the earnings onslaught began.

Monday Tee Up: A Big Earnings Week

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes trends in insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have now come in from 2Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Market sentiment remains in the tank and the stock market simply cannot put together a decent rally. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure index has fallen back to 20%, an extremely low equity exposure and a very bearish stance toward equities. This is the second time the index has dropped to 20% in the past six weeks. The seven-week average of exposure has fallen to 30%, the lowest since the pandemic low, as well as in 2015, 2011, and 2008/2009.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Volume finally picked up on Thursday, but unfortunately, most of it was to the downside. The S&P 500 broke down and out of its recent trading range and got smacked by 2.4%. The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) got clipped for 2.7%, while the S&P 400 MidCap (MDY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) cratered 2.1%. Once the trading ranges gave way, it was about the most consistent decline possible, with very controlled selling. NYSE breadth was lousy all day, finishing at -2,450 and with almost 90% of the volume and 90% of the issues on the index lower. Can that all be because of fear about a single monthly CPI print?

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

May Bounceback: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has started to shrink a bit, with the recent range between the high $90s and $110 and with WTI currently sitting at $105/barrel. After going parabolic in March and reaching $130, crude oil pulled back to $93.50, rallied back to $116.65, and fell to an intraday low of $93 on April 11 before rallying back above $107. It is still possible that WTI is tracing out symmetrical triangle, although the past breakout attempt in early May failed.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

With the majority of companies having reported fourth-quarter earnings, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. Almost 1200 insider buy and sell orders met the criteria for inclusion in the latest Weekly Insider Report from Vickers Stock Research. Still, the current level of activity falls short of the robust volumes at this point in the third-quarter earnings-release cycle -- when more than 2100 trades were placed.

This edition features our annual pharmaceutical pipeline, a fresh look at Barry Callebaut's chocolate operation, the buzz around RingCentral, and SAP, Subsea 7, and Just Eat Takeaway.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 2Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market moved higher last week during the busiest days of earnings season. Tech stocks far outperformed blue chips, though a portion of the outperformance was attributable to Tesla, as its stock is included in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, but not the DJIA. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 89 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 was up 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.33%. For the week, the DJIA was up 143 points, or 0.40%, the S&P 500 was up 1.33%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.70%. For the YTD, the DJIA is up 17.03%, the S&P 500 is up 22.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 20.25%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a better-than-expected July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 943,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 938,000 in June and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 865,000. The reading was the strongest since August 2020. The official unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, down from 5.9% in June and below the consensus of 5.7%. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold fell $44 to $1765 per ounce.

Consumers are now more willing to spend on lifestyle enhancements along with necessary spending on life-saving treatments. In addition, the survival of the Affordable Care Act has kept the ranks of insured U.S. citizens above the historical average, further increasing consumer spending on healthcare services and products. Meanwhile, companies with experience in diagnostic testing, vaccines, and antiviral medicines, as well as suppliers of protective equipment and other hospital products, should benefit from efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic. The sector accounts for 13.0% of the S&P 500, and includes companies in the pharmaceuticals, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurance industries. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 12.9%. We think the sector should account for 15-17% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.