In prior commentary, we discussed the relative strength of the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the weakness in small- and mid-cap stocks. The S&P 500 is in the middle, beating the little guys but trailing the higher-beta indices. The SPXEW (the equal-weight S&P 500) peaked in early May and has been flat ever since. Since early June, the S&P 500 has beaten the SPXEW consistently.

With the summer driving season now here, and kids out of school, families on the go are faced with the highest gas prices in three years. Gas prices are moving higher as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which hit an intraday high of $74.25/barrel on Wednesday, is at its highest point since October 2018 (when WTI peaked near $77). Gasoline futures hit $2.28 yesterday, the highest since May 2018 (when they peaked at $2.29). If the highs from 2018 are taken out, prices will be the highest since 2014.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, as another disappointing jobs report diminished concerns about an overheating economy and the potential for a near-term reduction in the Fed's bond buying program. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 559,000 payroll jobs in May, up from 278,000 in April but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 650,000. The official unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1% in April. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $22 to $1895 per ounce.

The first quarter was good for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 6.0%. The average stock in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage advanced more than 13%, and the median stock gained 9.6%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 12%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 16%. Will investors continue to favor value and small-cap? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time, but think that 2021 may be the "one-in-five years" that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. For small-caps, the vaccine is encouraging as these companies typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well positioned in 2021.

One of our many inputs for analyzing the stock market (and at one time a favorite) is market sentiment. If you read Market Movers on a regular basis, you might have noticed that we have talked about only one sentiment indicator for months. Which? Bullish sentiment, which has been off the charts according to many indicators, some going back to the middle of 2020. When trading, one must always use a stop-loss. And it's no different with technical analysis. When a tool stops working, put it aside and cut your forecasting mistakes.

Stocks fluctuated on Friday morning amid continued inflation concerns, a day after Thursday's sharp selloff. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 2.4% in January after declining in December, helped by government pandemic relief checks and a reduction in new coronavirus cases. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $44 to $1731 per ounce.

The stock market had a solid washout on Thursday, unlike Monday when growth got hit and value did okay. Net advances versus decliners yesterday totaled -2,468, the worst since 10/28, when it hit -2,566. Looking at prior washout days (those with at least 2,000 more decliners) and going back to May, most of the days were near (within a few days) or right at the bottom. During February and March, we obviously saw a cluster of terrible breadth days as the decline was relentless.

Crude oil (both WTI and Brent) continues to recover from the devastating bear market in February and March of 2020. WTI broke out of a bull flag on February 1, 2021, and has jumped almost 8% in the past four days to $56.30/barrel. That is the highest since January of last year. Brent crude is up to almost $59/barrel after a strong four-day run, reaching its highest level since last February.

On the first trading day of the new year, stocks took it on the chin, with the S&P 500 falling 1.7%, the DJIA dropping 1.6%, the Nasdaq losing 1.7%, the S&P 400 MidCap off 1.7% and the Russell 2000 down 1.5%.

Oh the insanity of investor sentiment! While there are many things to like about the stock market these days, market sentiment is not one of them. Sentiment just keeps pushing the envelope -- and one would think something has to give.

In our commentary last week, we called crude oil (WTI) "possibly the most interesting market right now." Since then, oil is up over 8%. With yesterday's strength, oil finished at its highest level since early March. More importantly, WTI broke back above the top of its range, which sat at $44. There is very little chart resistance until the low-$50s region.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning on continued coronavirus vaccine optimism and reduced post-election uncertainty, after the head of the General Services Administration approved the start of the formal transition to the Biden administration. The President-elect also continued to name new cabinet officers, including former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. On the economic front, the Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index dropped to 96.1 in November, down from 101.4 in October and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 98. The Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $45 per barrel, while gold fell $35 to $1803 per ounce.

The S&P 500 rose 5.5% in July and 7.0% in August. But September was a clunker, registering a 3.9% decline. It could have been worse -- and, in fact, was much worse around mid-month when the index was came within a whisker of a 10% correction from its 9/2/20 all-time peak.

The S&P 500 rose 5.5% in July and 7.0% in August. But September was a clunker, registering a 3.9% decline. It could have been worse -- and, in fact, was much worse around mid-month when the index was came within a whisker of a 10% correction from its 9/2/20 all-time peak.

Stocks fell on Friday morning dragged down by tech stocks. The consumer sentiment index rose to 78.0 in September, up from 74.1 in August. This was the best level since March. The Conference Board reported that the leading economic index rose 1.2% in August, compared to a revised 2% in July and a 3.1% rise in June. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1966 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning dragged down by tech stocks. The consumer sentiment index rose to 78.0 in September, up from 74.1 in August. This was the best level since March. The Conference Board reported that the leading economic index rose 1.2% in August, compared to a revised 2% in July and a 3.1% rise in June. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1966 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid concerns about rising coronavirus cases in many states and a bleak economic outlook from the Federal Reserve. First-time jobless claims totaled 1.542 million for the week ended June 6, down from the prior week and below the Reuters consensus of 1.55 million. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil fell nearly 7% to $37 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1750 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid concerns about rising coronavirus cases in many states and a bleak economic outlook from the Federal Reserve. First-time jobless claims totaled 1.542 million for the week ended June 6, down from the prior week and below the Reuters consensus of 1.55 million. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil fell nearly 7% to $37 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1750 per ounce.

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

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With the S&P 500 steadily climbing since the first part of October, the index is getting close to the bottom end of our initial technical target zone of 3,300 to 3,400 for 2020. So it's time to elaborate a bit on some "potential" price targets for the index in 2020. Remember, targets should never be set in stone; they're just an educated guess as to where the market will go.

With the S&P 500 steadily climbing since the first part of October, the index is getting close to the bottom end of our initial technical target zone of 3,300 to 3,400 for 2020. So it's time to elaborate a bit on some "potential" price targets for the index in 2020. Remember, targets should never be set in stone; they're just an educated guess as to where the market will go.

Stocks fell on Friday morning dragged down by tech stocks. The consumer sentiment index rose to 78.0 in September, up from 74.1 in August. This was the best level since March. The Conference Board reported that the leading economic index rose 1.2% in August, compared to a revised 2% in July and a 3.1% rise in June. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1966 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid concerns about rising coronavirus cases in many states and a bleak economic outlook from the Federal Reserve. First-time jobless claims totaled 1.542 million for the week ended June 6, down from the prior week and below the Reuters consensus of 1.55 million. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil fell nearly 7% to $37 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1750 per ounce.

The Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy

With the S&P 500 steadily climbing since the first part of October, the index is getting close to the bottom end of our initial technical target zone of 3,300 to 3,400 for 2020. So it's time to elaborate a bit on some "potential" price targets for the index in 2020. Remember, targets should never be set in stone; they're just an educated guess as to where the market will go.

Stocks rose on Friday as China's President Xi signaled a desire for completing a Phase I trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4%, while both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 added 0.2%. For the week, however, the S&P 500 was denied a seventh consecutive week of gains, falling 0.3% along with a similar decline for the Nasdaq, while the Dow dropped 0.5%. Year-to-date gains were trimmed to 19.5% for the Dow, 28.4% for the Nasdaq and 24.1% for the S&P 500.

Stocks rose on Friday as China's President Xi signaled a desire for completing a Phase I trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4%, while both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 added 0.2%. For the week, however, the S&P 500 was denied a seventh consecutive week of gains, falling 0.3% along with a similar decline for the Nasdaq, while the Dow dropped 0.5%. Year-to-date gains were trimmed to 19.5% for the Dow, 28.4% for the Nasdaq and 24.1% for the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 rose 5.5% in July and 7.0% in August. But September was a clunker, registering a 3.9% decline. It could have been worse -- and, in fact, was much worse around mid-month when the index was came within a whisker of a 10% correction from its 9/2/20 all-time peak.