Gold is near all-time highs, currently around $2,556/oz. We set a technical target of $2,400 to $2,500 earlier this year. Longer-term, gold could well go to $3,000 or higher. However, the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) is very oversold and is bouncing off its prior low from late 2023. The COT data remains bearish for the USD and has been pretty accurate in forecasting the intermediate-term direction of the greenback. Gold stocks are short-term overbought with some bearish divergences and may take a breather soon. But price is the final arbiter and there is certainly little concern about the current uptrend. We do see some nagging technical issues, but at this point they are just warnings. On the weekly chart, momentum has traced out a lower peak at its most-recent closing high versus the past high in mid-April. In addition, the uptrend in the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is in question as its primary trendline has been busted. We also have a five-wave uptrend of lesser degree off the late-2022 lows. We do have room on the weekly as far as the current bullish channel is concerned. The distance from its 200-week exponential moving average is 31%, and wide historically. On the monthly, we have seen a more-important primary five-wave rally off the lows since 2015. The latest monthly price high versus the prior high in July 2020 has not been confirmed by momentum -- and this is a glaring long-term bearish divergence. Gold has also run up to potential resistance from the top of its monthly bullish channel that has been in place since 2022. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Wednesday was another wild ride for Information Technology, this time to the upside, with buyers taking advantage of the recent fire sale. Semiconductors were again the main event, with the iShares Semi ETF (SOXX) surging 6.7% and the VanEck Vectors Semi (SMH) soaring 7.6%. If there were a volatility index like the VIX for the semiconductor indices, it would be interesting to see how high it would have shot up during the last 15 days. We'll venture a guess that a semi VIX would have jumped up to the 35% or 40% area, mirroring when the S&P 500 (SPX) had quick declines between 12% and 16% in recent years. According to www.barchart.com, the implied volatility (IV) of the SOXX is 37%. IV measures the market's expectations for how much an asset will fluctuate, is calculated using an option pricing model, and is expressed in annualized terms. Since July 10, the SOXX has fallen between 2.2% to 7% on six separate days and has risen between 2% to 6.7% on three different occasions. Yesterday was the first day we saw evidence of accumulation on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the SOXX since late April, when the market was coming out of its last pullback. To feel better that a turn may be at hand, we would like to see three to five accumulation days over the next nine days. We also would like to see the Nasdaq and the QQQ retake their 50-day averages and would like to see a bullish cross of the five-day/13-day exponential averages. A key upside level for the SPX is a 61.8% retracement of the pullback at 5,565. For the QQQ, the 50-day is at 473.52, while a 61.8% take-back targets 484. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The overall stock market had another very good day on July 16 -- but, once again, it was because of the now-loved (at least for now) little guys. To put this into perspective, the total market cap of the Russell 2000 (IWM) is said to be only as large as one of the multiple $3 trillion market-cap stocks in the 'Magnificent 7.' But let's not spoil the party as stocks are posting some historical returns on massive trading volume. Over the past five days, IWM has soared 11.5%. Excluding the comeback from the pandemic, the index has logged the greatest five-day period since October 2011. Before that, you have to go back to the initial rally after the March 2009 bear-market low to find such a move. The IWM is now only nine points (or about 4%) from its November 8, 2021, all-time high. It has completed a massive 31-month consolidation and, as they say, the larger the base, the higher in space. Over the past four days, IWM volume has exploded as investors have piled into the small-cap trade. The four-day volume totaled 227.4 million shares or 56.9 mln./day. The 50-day average for volume is 26.5 mln. shares and the 200-day average is 36 mln. shares. This is the largest cluster of volume during an IWM rally since December. Almost always, large clusters of huge volume happen during corrections and bear markets and many times represent downside capitulation. Market breadth has obviously been strong, with the four-day NYSE advances-declines hitting +1,004. This is a short-term breadth thrust and is usually associated with the beginning of an advance.

Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reporting before the open on Thursday, and J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, and Fastenal reporting before the open on Friday. It is also "inflation" week, with June CPI and Initial Claims at 8:30am on Thursday, June PPI at 8:30am on Friday, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am Friday. Of note, the CBOE FedWatch Tool is showing a 71% chance that the Fed cuts 25 basis points (bps) at the September 18 meeting and a 74% probability of 50+ bps cut by the end of 2024. The S&P 500 (SPX) has been remarkably tranquil even though only a handful of stocks are propelling the index higher. The SPX has now gone 345 trade days without a daily 2% drop, according to Carson Investment Research. One would think that we are overdue, but there have been periods when this kind of calm market has persisted for much longer. The last time we saw this much calm was back in 2016 to 2018, when the SPX went 351 days without a big dip. Prior to that, and the longest streak since 1950, was the 2003-2007 period, when the SPX went an incredible 949 days without a 2% drop. Other periods of time that featured extended serene price action were 1994 to 1996, 1983 to 1986, 1970 to 1973, 1966 to 1969, and 1963 to 1966. Some of these periods were followed by additional calm and some were, of course, followed by very nasty conditions. So much for the saying that a low VIX is bearish for stocks. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reporting before the open on Thursday, and J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, and Fastenal reporting before the open on Friday. It is also "inflation" week, with June CPI and Initial Claims at 8:30am on Thursday, June PPI at 8:30am on Friday, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am Friday. Of note, the CBOE FedWatch Tool is showing a 71% chance that the Fed cuts 25 basis points (bps) at the September 18 meeting and a 74% probability of 50+ bps cut by the end of 2024. The S&P 500 (SPX) has been remarkably tranquil even though only a handful of stocks are propelling the index higher. The SPX has now gone 345 trade days without a daily 2% drop, according to Carson Investment Research. One would think that we are overdue, but there have been periods when this kind of calm market has persisted for much longer. The last time we saw this much calm was back in 2016 to 2018, when the SPX went 351 days without a big dip. Prior to that, and the longest streak since 1950, was the 2003-2007 period, when the SPX went an incredible 949 days without a 2% drop. Other periods of time that featured extended serene price action were 1994 to 1996, 1983 to 1986, 1970 to 1973, 1966 to 1969, and 1963 to 1966. Some of these periods were followed by additional calm and some were, of course, followed by very nasty conditions. So much for the saying that a low VIX is bearish for stocks. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

AI is being used as a tool to make Financial sector companies more profitable. The sector is using AI for financial planning, underwriting, trading, and fraud protection, among other areas, allowing professionals to reduce time working on mundane tasks and instead focus on core tasks that drive their businesses. Financial advisors are using AI to draft financial plans and portfolios for clients, identifying patterns in spending and savings habits. In trading, AI allows algorithms to analyze large sums of data and historical trends in order to recognize patterns and movements in markets. Since it uses an algorithm, AI can digest and analyze huge sums of information in order to make trades faster, smarter, and more accurate. AI also is used in underwriting. By scanning a company's historical data and identifying trends, "AI-driven underwriting systems" can automate risk assessment, such as optimal loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios. But artificial intelligence may be the most impactful in identifying and combating credit-card fraud. Card companies use AI models that analyze data patterns and customer spending habits almost instantly. As a result, suspicious payments or transactions are flagged immediately -- and the amount of time it takes for both the company and the customer to identify suspicious activity is decreased significantly. We believe that the use of AI will continue to grow and will help Financial sector companies be more successful. Here is a list of Argus BUY-rated stocks in the Financial sector that are leaders in the use AI.

Last week brought further good news for the mega-cap indices, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way and rising 3.5%, the Nasdaq popping 3.2%, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG) adding 3%, the S&P 100 (OEX) gaining 2.2%, and the S&P 500 tacking on 1.6%. On the downside, the S&P MidCap 400 fell 0.8%, the Russell 2000 dropped 1%, and the S&P SmallCap 600 gave up 1.9%. All the mid- and small-cap indices fell below their 50-day averages last week, as these stocks continue to struggle. Concentration among the winners and losers continues to widen, as the tech-heavy AI stocks leave the rest of the field in the dust. As we said last week, many tech industries are not faring as well as the semiconductor industry, which continues to trounce everything. Market breadth is certainly not optimal for a bull market, and eventually one of two things likely will happen. The rest (or part) of the market will wake up and start to participate, adding to the semi strength, or the semiconductors will run into trouble and take an already weak market structure lower. Dominance by the heavily weighted market caps is not a bad thing as long as it persists. And yes, we certainly have seen this action play out before, such as in the mid- to late-1990s period, with gains lasting much longer than many expected.

Allocating capital is one of the core competencies of the U.S. economy. That doesn't mean the industry isn't cyclical, and the recent period of high rates certainly has been a challenge. Consider the IPO segment of the industry. The U.S. initial public offering market, which sizzled in 2021 with 1,144 IPOs and a total transaction value of $253 billion, saw a sharp downturn in 2022, with only 368 deals raising $20 billion. IPO valuations improved markedly during 2023, but overall activity again fell as the uncertain economic environment and still-high interest rates kept private companies on the sidelines. The Unicorns vanished. Meantime, the asset management and brokerage segment, which suffered from lower stock valuations in 2022, experienced improved valuations throughout 2023 and into 2024, which has had a positive impact on earnings results. The financial exchange and data segment has a strong backdrop, with higher trading volumes due to global macro developments leading to volatility across equity, fixed-income, currency, and commodity markets. But those sharply higher interest rates have pushed up the cost of financing and put a damper on high-profile debt underwriting and merger/acquisition activity. On the positive side, as the Fed's rate-hike campaign nears its conclusion, we expect to see better M&A and IPO environments emerge throughout 2024. For more insights into and investing ideas related to the Capital Markets sector, see our latest Industry Review & Outlook deep dive into Capital Markets.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors digested earning reports. Starts of residential units fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000 in March, a 14.7% decline from February's revised rate and well short of expectations. Building permits issued also slipped to an annualized 1,458,000, a 4.3% decline from February and also short of expectations. Housing starts declined in all regions with the exception of the West, which rose 7.1%. Building permits issued were flat for units of five or more homes per building, while declining 10.3% for buildings of two to four units, and 5.7% for single-family homes. Regionally, permits issued fell in the Northeast (-20.8%), Midwest (-14.7%), and South (-0.6%), while growing in the West (+5.1%). The Dow was up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil is trading near above $85 per barrel and gold rose $22 to $2405 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Capital One Financial Corp. (COF); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Novo Nordisk (NVO); Shell Plc (SHEL) and the Focus List deletions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); Morgan Stanley (MS); Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following the holiday-shortened week. Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have announced new bond issues ahead of new regulatory requirements to maintain higher capital reserves. U.S. Treasury yields are up. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.1%, while the Nasdaq was up 0.1%. Crude oil dropped to $72 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $2043 per ounce.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

Allocating capital is one of the core competencies of the U.S. economy. That doesn't mean the industry isn't cyclical, and the recent period of high rates has no doubt been a challenge. Consider the IPO segment of the industry. The U.S. initial public offering market, which sizzled in 2021 with 1,144 IPOs and a total transaction value of $253 billion, saw a sharp downturn in 2022, with only 368 deals raising $20 billion. IPO valuations improved markedly during 2023, but activity again fell as the uncertain economic environment and still-high interest rates kept private companies on the sidelines. The asset-management and brokerage segment, which suffered from lower stock valuations in 2022, experienced improved valuations throughout 2023, which has had a positive impact on recent earnings results. The financial exchange and data segment has a strong backdrop, with higher trading volumes due to global macro developments leading to volatility across equity, fixed-income, currency, and commodity markets. But those sharply higher interest rates have pushed up the cost of financing and put a damper on the high-profile debt underwriting and merger/acquisition activity. As the Federal Reserve's rate-hike campaign nears its conclusion, we expect to see better M&A and IPO environments emerge in 2024. For more insights and ideas into the capital markets industry, see our latest Industry Review & Outlook deep dive.

Black Friday. Cyber Monday. The retailers are out in force, with a massive marketing push to win dollars during this prime shopping time during the holidays. Just like retail, some stocks are seemingly at a big discount right now. Yes, we have our own Black Friday on Wall Street. But shop with care. We look for quality companies with solid books, proven track records, and strong management. This week, we used the Argus screening tool to create a list of companies that have clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, and that we think are also undervalued and offer possible buying opportunities. We sorted the Argus stock universe for companies with a BUY rating, a market cap over $8 billion, and the highest financial strength ratings. Then we looked for those that are furthest away from their 52-week highs, and thus likely offering the deepest discounts. The resulting list is weighted towards Financial. That's not surprising based on the beating that the Financial sector took earlier this year after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Here is our list of recommended Black Friday Stock Deals for November 2023.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning amid rising geopolitical tensions and mixed earnings reports from major companies. Investors also weighed new housing market data. The Commerce Department said that overall housing starts rose 7% to an annualized 1.358 million in September, helped by strong growth in multifamily housing. Housing starts for single-family homes rose a lesser 3.2%. In China, GDP data was stronger than expected. The National Statistics Bureau said that the Chinese economy expanded at a 4.9% rate in the third quarter, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.4% though down from 6.3% growth in 2Q23. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.3%, up from 0.5% growth in 2Q. On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble posted strong 3Q results, while Morgan Stanley reported a 9% year-over-year decline in third-quarter earnings, hurt by weakness in its investment banking business. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 1% to $88 per barrel, while gold jumped $32 to $1968 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We have raised our intermediate-term technical outlook to neutral. The Teflon stock market continues to crawl higher in the face of bearish daily momentum divergences and, in some cases, extreme bullish sentiment. This is typical action in the early stages of a bull market. However, it took 164 days for the S&P 500 (SPX) to gain 20%, far longer than almost every other bull market in the past -- so we thought we were dealing with a market that might remain range bound. That hasn't been the case, as the major indices have dealt extremely well with some key areas of chart resistance as well as various important Fibonacci retracement levels.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

This was one of our 10 Investment Themes for 2023 and remains relevant, as the S&P 500 is up 13% year-to-date. The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher; since 1980, stocks have turned in a positive performance almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. That was not so in 2022. Yes, the S&P 500 set an all-time record. But it peaked on January 3 and the rest of the year was downhill. The stock market entered a bear market in June 2022. Bond returns weren't much better, as spiking inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher and the Fed raised short-term rates to try to bring inflation down. The turmoil posed a challenge for Wall Street firms, as investment returns were dismal, the IPO market dried up, and M&A activity disappeared. By year-end, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were announcing layoffs. We are more optimistic for the financial markets in 2023. Equity valuations are lower in the wake of the selloff in 2022. There is pent-up demand for IPOs and M&A once the environment improves. Finally, consensus expectations call for weak earnings and investment returns in 2023, setting markets up for a positive surprise. As the outlook improves, we think that investor demand will pick up for investment banks, exchange operators, and money-management firms. We recently raised our sector rating on Financial Services to Over-Weight. Stocks in our coverage universe that we believe are positioned to benefit include the following.

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trend toward several important pieces of resistance following the rally off the March 13 intraday low of 3,809. First, the SPX is right at trendline resistance off the peak since August. Back in the latter part of February, the index had broken down out of a bearish wedge, backtested the lower line of the pattern, and continued lower. From the February 2 closing high to the recent closing low, the index gave up almost 8%, or 324 points. Based on the size of the wedge, a minimum target was down at 3,656 -- which the index didn't come close to hitting.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning as investors weighed more earnings reports from major banks. Morgan Stanley shares rose 6%, despite mixed results, as strength in the company's wealth management business offset weakness in investment banking. On the negative side, Goldman Sachs fell 7% after reporting much weaker than expected 4Q results. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $80 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1913 per ounce.

The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher. Since 1980, stocks have turned in positive performances almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. That was not the case in 2022. Sure, the S&P 500 set an all-time record. But it peaked on January 3, and the rest of the year was downhill. The stock market technically entered a bear market in June. Bond returns weren't much better, as spiking inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher and the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates to try to bring inflation under control. The turmoil in the marketplace posed a challenge for Wall Street firms, as investment returns were dismal, the IPO market dried up, and M&A activity disappeared. By year-end, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were announcing layoffs. Looking ahead, we are more optimistic for stocks in 2023. For one thing, equity valuations are lower in the wake of the sharp sell-off in 2022. For another, there is pent-up demand for IPOs and M&A, once the environment improves. Finally, consensus expectations call for weak 2023 earnings and investment returns, setting the markets up for a positive surprise. As the outlook for financial firms improves, we think investor demand will pick-up for investment banks, exchanges, and money management firms. Stocks in our Universe of Coverage that are in position to benefit include the following.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Each December, Argus surveys its team of analysts, seeking their best ideas for the upcoming year. The Argus Research team draws on its experience (the average analyst has 18 years of Wall Street experience and 10 year at Argus), as well as the company's proprietary six-point research framework and earnings and valuation models to make the calls. Argus analysts cover the waterfront (every sector from Energy to Healthcare to Consumer to Technology), so each sector is represented. This year's list includes some long-time favorites, as well as some recent upgrades and new initiations. The list includes mostly large-caps and mid-caps, and both growth and value stocks. We will be going over the list in more detail during our January webinar and detailing why each stock has been selected by the covering analyst. In the interim, more information on each of these BUY-rated stocks is available on our website.

Stocks fell on Friday morning, reversing course after Thursday's rally, as investors weighed the first round of 3Q earnings reports from major banks. JPMorgan and Citigroup posted lower 3Q earnings, reflecting weakness in investment banking and higher loss provisions, though both banks topped consensus EPS forecasts with help from higher net interest income. Wells Fargo missed the consensus EPS estimate as earnings fell sharply from the prior year. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $86 per barrel, while gold traded near $1654 per ounce.

The U.S. housing market has been an important contributor to the U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic, but high prices and high interest rates lately have cooled the market a bit. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in May 2022 totaled 5.4 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 16% from the beginning of the year. The Commerce Department reported that new one-family homes were selling at a 696,000/year rate in May -- down from 831,000 in January. Meanwhile, a leading indicator for the industry, housing permits, has turned lower as well. According to the Census Bureau, permits were being authorized in May at a 1.7 million annual rate, down from 1.9 million in March. Housing prices remain hot. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April 2022 showed that the average price rose 20% year-over-year. The high prices have boosted housing inventories. Currently there is a 7.7-month supply of existing homes for sale (the average range is 4.5-7.5 months), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Until pricing pressures start to ease, we look for modest growth (at best) in the housing sector.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by sharp declines in the Energy, Basic Materials, and Financial sectors. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley shares both fell after the companies reported disappointing 2Q earnings, hurt by weakness in investment banking. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell 3% to $93 per barrel, while gold traded near $1703 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are AbbVie Inc (ABBV); Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST); ASML Holding NV (ASML); Sempra Energy (SRE); Morgan Stanley (MS) and the Focus List deletions are Sysco Corp. (SYY); Lam Research Corp. (LRCX); Lazard Ltd. (LAZ); Moderna Inc (MRNA).

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid earnings reports from major banks and a new bid for Twitter from Elon Musk. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 185,000 for the week ended April 9, up from 167,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus of 170,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.475 million, down from 1.523 million a week earlier and below the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.0%. Crude oil fell 1% to $103 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1972 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks gave up early gains on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Procter & Gamble, and new housing market data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts rose 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.702 million units in December, up from 1.678 million in November and above the Reuters consensus of 1.650 million. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $87 per barrel, while gold jumped $26 to $1838 per ounce.

We have an Over-Weight rating on the Financial Services sector, which accounts for approximately 12% of the S&P 500.Within Financial Services, the bank & brokerage industries account for about half of the market cap. The banking industry is unique, compared to the business models of Industrial, Technology, Healthcare or Consumer companies. “Revenues” for banks generally include net interest income and noninterest (or fee) income, such as service charges, credit card fees, and wealth management fees. “Costs” for banks include noninterest expenses such as salaries, marketing, technology, and credit cost (in the form of a loan loss provision). Numerous factors influence bank profits, including jobs growth and consumer confidence, the yield curve, credit costs, the IPO environment, and regulatory activity. When valuing bank stocks, analysts focus on P/E ratios, price/book ratios, ROA, and ROE. All else being equal, investors grant premium valuations to banks that perform well consistently, relative to other banks, on ROE, ROA, efficiency ratios, loan growth credit quality, dividend growth, and yield. Here are five banks on the Argus BUY list that meet most of these criteria.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors focused on solid earnings from major banks and lower-than-expected weekly unemployment claims. First-time claims fell to 293,000, down from the prior week and below consensus. Continuing claims dropped to 2.593 million from 2.727 million a week earlier, and were also below the consensus forecast. Inflation data was mixed. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% in September, down from 0.7% in August and below the consensus forecast of 0.6% growth. However, producer prices were still up 8.6% from the prior year, up from 8.3% in August. The Dow rose 1.56%, the S&P 1.71%, and the Nasdaq 1.73%. Crude oil rose to $81.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1798 per ounce.

Intermediate-term market breadth continues to flop around like a fish out of water and we are monitoring it carefully. In general, longer-term measures of breadth remain supportive of higher stock prices. All of the following breadth data is as of the 9/24 close.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke key chart support at $65 last Thursday and fell to a corrective low of $62 on Friday, one of our targets and the lowest level since May. It's possible that oil was in a three-wave ABC decline with the A and B waves completed. If wave C equals wave A, the pattern would target the $62 region. This week, WTI has been very strong, popping to $67.75 on Tuesday or 9% in two days. It looks like crude has completed a false breakdown, which makes it very likely that the correction is over.

This edition features new and updated coverage of First Republic Bank and Morgan Stanley; the runway for Australia/New Zealand airlines; and notes from Pilgrims Pride, Aviva, and Disney.