Former President Donald Trump has won the Iowa Republican caucus with more than 50% of the vote, confirming that he is the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the upcoming election and productivity on Capitol Hill.

Boltansky believes there will be a 2020 rematch, with Trump and President Joe Biden battling each other again in 2024.

Boltansky says “It's going to be incredibly close. It's going to be contested. And it's going to be down to the wire.”

Moving to what is happening on Capitol Hill, Boltansky sees “exceedingly low” expectations for US Congress, but still little progress. Boltansky explains that with so much left to do, Congress is now trying to accomplish what they can before their term ends.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Eyek Ntekim

Video Transcript

- And Isaac, I was on the campaign trail in 2016 and 2020. And we've learned that it really comes down to a handful of states to the tune of seven. What do you know about what the polling indicates to us about what is going to decide for voters, what they are going to decide on when they enter the voting booths in those seven states?

ISAAC BOLTANSKY: You know, first, I'll pair it the Federal Reserve Chairman and say I think we should all be humble as we think about this. No one knows what we're going to be talking about in three months, let alone in November of next year.

What I tell my clients, though, is that this is going to be an incredibly close race. And you don't need me to tell you that. Just look at 2020.

We saw an election that was decided by 44,000 voters in three states. And you didn't have some of the competing complexities that we have now including an economy that anyone who says they understand isn't paying attention. And you have a geopolitical dynamic that continues to show how volatile it's going to be.

And then in case we needed more to make it difficult, you've got third party candidates who can swing any of these individual states. It's going to be incredibly close. It's going to be contested and it's going to be down to the wire.

- Isaac, let's switch gears and talk about what's going on in Washington as well. We're just, what are we, Isaac, about three days here from a partial government shutdown. A lot of moving pieces and dynamics at play here. How do you see that playing out?

ISAAC BOLTANSKY: We're in earnings season, right? And this is all about managing expectations. And when we think back on this Congress, expectations were exceedingly low for them to do anything.

And yet they continue to miss those even exceedingly low expectations for their performance. My sense of this is that we will get an agreement that funds the government into March. It will be a laddered approach that gives us two different deadlines March 1 and March 8 is what they're circling. Maybe you push those back a little bit further.

But it strikes me. And I think it's noteworthy here that we are already months into the 2024 fiscal year. And we're still fighting over budget levels.

And that tells you how divided Congress is, how inept this Congress is. But it also shows and I think underscores that they're trying to build a Christmas tree right now. And they realize that they have so much unfinished work that they're now trying to build a Christmas tree that will allow everyone to hang an ornament on it.

You can have one ornament for Ukraine funding, another for border spending, another with this tax deal that we've heard. And that's really the only option for anything to happen because they have failed miserably to move any specific legislative proposals across the goal.