Biden vs. Trump: Impact on the economy

As part of Yahoo Finance Invest, NYU Stern School of Business Professor Emeritus Nouriel Roubini sits down with Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman to break down everything you need to know about the 2024 election. Some of the topics covered include Bidenomics, Former President Donald Trump, and economic policies. Here are the highlights.

State of the economy (00:00:06)

"Interest rates are higher, higher for longer," Dr. Roubini said. "That may slow down the economy, geopolitical risk, that may lead to a spike in energy prices. And therefore, there are factors that could lead us to a short and shallow recession."

Biden, Trump economic policies (00:00:49)

Dr. Roubini believes that there is “continuity” between President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump in terms of economic policies. He explained, "Biden has passed the IRA Act, but the IRA Act is actually very popular in red states that are investing massive amounts of money into all of this renewable energy. I would say there will be more continuity in terms of economic policy rather than differences between Trump and Biden."

Video Transcript

NOURIEL ROUBINI: The question is whether the economy is going to have a soft landing where you go back to 2% inflation without any recession or whether there's going to be a softish bumpy landing where, in order to achieve 2% inflation, you're going to have a short and shallow recession.

I would say that the jury is still out on that. The economic data actually right now look like in the direction of a soft landing. Growth is still above potential. Inflation has been falling, and therefore we're going in the right direction. But interest rates are higher, higher for longer. That may slow down the economy. There are geopolitical risks that might lead to a spike in energy prices, and therefore there are factors that could lead us to a short and shallow recession.

Well, I think that regardless of whether Biden wins or Trump, the policies that are of derisking, of protectionism, of deglobalization, of decoupling on one side, restricting migration, a greater role of subsidies to favorite sectors that are strategically important, whether it is semiconductors or others, are going to remain.

Of course, the policies of Biden and Trump on climate change are very different. Biden has passed the IRA Act, but that IRA Act is actually very popular in red states that are investing massive amounts of money into all this renewable energy. So it's going to stay. Those subsidies are going to be there regardless of who is in power.

So I would say there will be more continuity in terms of economic policy rather than differences between Trump and Biden.

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