Bull market still presents 'pockets of opportunity': Strategist

In this article:

US Equities (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) are trading higher on Thursday morning as the market reacts to the Summary of Economic Projections. Also known as the Fed dot plot, the projections were released following the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Wednesday meeting. The data revealed that nine of the members believe three interest rate cuts will occur by the year's end.

Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist Keith Lerner joins Yahoo Finance to give insight into the bull market.

Despite trading occurring at record highs, Lerner signals there are still many entry points into the market: "We still like tech, we still like communications, we like financials which are at a new high but still well below where they were several years ago. There are pockets of opportunity, the equal weight S&P also just broke out to a new high but didn't do anything for a few years. Also, neutral small caps, but I will say that is a cheap area of the market that you could also see some catch-up there as well."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: All right. Well, stocks rallying two record highs after the Federal Reserve maintained its outlook for three rate cuts this year. The S&P opening above 5,200, pushing even closer and closer to that 5,300 level. You've got the DOW up nearly 200 points here at the open. Keith Lerner of Truist, Co-chief Investment Officer, joining us now. Keith, it's great to see you here. So I guess, first, just your reaction here this March that we continue to see two record highs this March to the upside-- upside. Anything going to stop the market's momentum anytime soon?

KEITH LERNER: Yeah. Well, great to be back with you, Seana and Brad. I wish I was in studio with you all, but this is a good second. You know, listen, I think what we're seeing is we're in a bull market. Bull market rules apply, and what tends to happen in a bull market is the surprises tend to be the upside. I mean, of course, there's going to be something at some point that we're going to have a gut check.

I mean, we've only had like one or two days of that. If you go back the last 30 or 40 years, it's very unusual not to have at least at some point a 5% correction. But I think more importantly, as an investor, you know, you want to stick with the primary trend. That primary trend is positive, and it's being supported by fundamentals as well.

The forward earnings estimates for the S&P just made another-- another record high, and that's been happening in almost every week as well. So I think the bottom line is the primary trend is positive. If you do have pullbacks, which we will have, use those as an opportunity, but is not a place even if we get a little bit extended on a short-term basis that we would be selling into.

BRAD SMITH: Keith, there are probably a lot of investors out there that might be wondering where a safe place to invest in the market is when the market is already at record highs. Do they just go and pile into the crowded trade, or are there other areas that are catching your eye right now?

KEITH LERNER: Yeah. Well, the first thing I will just say is that new highs make investors nervous, but new highs are not a bad thing. When we look back historically, when you make new highs, the forward returns are actually positive. And the other thing we have to keep in context here is the market didn't do anything for two years. Right? It went down in 2022, up in 2023.

But for both of that period, you were flat. Our work suggests that after you're flat for two years and you break out, the probability of positive returns is-- is well above average. Now going back to your specific point on areas, I mean, we still like tech. We still like communications. We like financials, which are at a new high but still well below where they were several years ago.

So there are pockets of opportunity. You know, the equal-weighted S&P also just broke out to a new high but didn't do anything for a few years. Also, were neutral small caps. But I will say that is a cheap area of the market that you could also see some catch up there as well. So I still think there's plenty of opportunities in-- in the overall market right now.

SEANA SMITH: Keith, are you a little bit more bullish on small caps after what we heard from Powell yesterday and what was included in the summary of economic projections just in terms of GDP holding up even better than initially thought?

KEITH LERNER: Yeah, listen. I want to be because they're really cheap. The one thing that we've noticed in our work and what we're waiting for some confirmation is I talked about those forward earnings estimates for the broad-based market moving up. We're not seeing that same trend for small caps or midcaps. They're weaker, so I'd like to see that move up.

But strictly from evaluation standpoint, if the yields come down, you'd probably get a bigger rip in small caps. So I think the way I would say is we're sticking with large caps. But for those that are underweight small caps, I think to your point, if-if yields come down further, that would be a positive for small caps. Because they have so much floating-rate debt, they're more sensitive to interest rates. So I do think there's an opportunity there.

Advertisement