Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus still thinks the S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by year end, telling Yahoo Finance Live that profit taking and a 'healthy reconsideration' of Fed rate cuts were among factors to blame for the market's rough start to 2024.

Looking ahead, Stoltzfus expects the market to remain data-dependent until fourth-quarter earnings season gets underway, which he views as a catalyst for stocks.

"We think we'll see enough positive surprises to offset concerns in certain areas of weakness, whether it is on tough comps... or issues tied to global or domestic growth," Stoltzfus explained.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: John, taking that under consideration here and your expectations for earnings growth looking ahead, not only to the upcoming quarter when we'll get fourth quarter results, but ahead here to the rest of 2024, do you think earnings season is going to be enough to turn around this momentum that we saw to the downside to start the year? JOHN STOLTZFUS: Well, we think it as we look at the fourth quarter earnings season across the transom, we think we'll see enough surprises that are positive to offset concerns in certain areas of weakness, whether it is on tough comps, whether it is at issues that are tied to global growth or domestic growth, and the considerations by various strategy groups and hedge fund groups within the market.

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So we look at it, if anything, the journal over the weekend, as I recall said that based on what they were seeing from FactSet, growth is now expected to be around 1.3% earnings growth. That would be down from around 4 in the third quarter. But remember, going into these earnings seasons, analysts have been relatively conservative overall. And the sense of the market has always been very negative going in. So open to positive surprises that we think the economy is bigger than the bear negative PitchBook here.

BRAD SMITH: Does that mean traders should be embracing, in some cases, but also prepared for some of those more volatile shocks post earnings?

JOHN STOLTZFUS: Brad, absolutely. Volatility is part and parcel of the markets and uncertainty. As you know, I've been doing this-- I've been involved in the market since 1983. So I've been through every boom, bust, and recovery cycle in the process. And what we've got to say, when we look at it is things have to get digested. It's not uncommon after a remarkably powerful run from the end of last October through the end of the year that markets probably got ahead of themselves.