US Equities (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) have experienced a historic run, with the S&P 500 seeing multiple weeks of gains. However, February's Producer Price Index (PPI) reading revealed a 0.6% increase in wholesale prices.
Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the latest PPI data and his perceptions of the market's strength.
Detrick signals that initial weekly jobless claims are useful indicators of the economy's robust performance: "What caught me this morning though, we're still bullish, maybe a little pause would be normal, yes inflation is a little hotter, maybe you could argue the retail numbers are a tad weak, but look at claims. 209,000, I mean just quietly -- you hear about the layoffs, yet there's no spike in initial claims. The consumer is still strong, wages are still strong...but overall this backdrop is still there, its a strong economy, and still a bull market. "
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
SEANA SMITH: It's great to have you here. So help us make sense of the moves that we're seeing in the market here. We're up against those record highs. Enough to keep the momentum?
RYAN DETRICK: Yeah, first off, March 14, happy Pi Day. Have you guys talked about that yet?
SEANA SMITH: We haven't, no. Thirty minutes in.
RYAN DETRICK: So there we go.
SEANA SMITH: Thank God you're here.
RYAN DETRICK: Happy-- well, yeah. Happy Pi Day. So, listen, I mean, we've been optimistic. We've been pretty bullish. Let's just put it in context. I know Jared you talk about these things. Up 16 of 19 weeks on the S&P, maybe 17 out of 20. 24% gain those 19 weeks.
That's like never happened before. So this has been a great run. A historic run for a lot of reasons. We can get into some of the things.
What caught me this morning, though, that-- we're still bullish. Maybe a little pause would be normal. Yes, inflation is a little hotter. Maybe you could argue the retail number's a tad weak. But look at claims-- 209,000. I mean, just quietly, you hear about these big layoffs, yet there's no initial spike in initial claims.
I mean, the consumer is still strong. Wages are still strong. Inflation, we can get into that stuff. But overall, this backdrop is still there. It's a strong economy. And it's still a bull market.
JARED BLIKRE: And the continuing claims also down. So, I mean, we're focused on the inflation data trying to figure out what the Fed's next move in-- is. But the market is always trying to get ahead of the Fed. And for all the bearish calls that we've seen, for all the calls that the market is extended-- as you said, we pretty much haven't seen this before, at least not recently. What could put a pinprick in this rally and pop this little bit of a-- I don't want to call it a bubble. I'm trying to shy away from that word. But how do we-- how do we do some mean reversion and get into that?
RYAN DETRICK: And real quickly on a bubble, I mean, the last six weeks, S&P 500 forward estimates for 12 months are up 2%. That's a really big move. I mean, this has been a big move. But earnings have justified it, so we would say we don't think this is a bubble.
But I think it is-- it is that F word, right? The Fed. I mean, the Fed next week. We saw on January 31, that was the last Fed meeting, that's when they really pushed back on six or seven cuts, maybe three or four. And now, were down to three or four. But what's amazing since January 31, what's led us? The cyclical areas. Materials actually has led.
JARED BLIKRE: Materials.
RYAN DETRICK: Materials has led. Industrials, financials. I mean, that's kind of-- I don't know if it's surprising, but it's the message of the market that, listen, we're rallying because the economy is strong. And I-- you know, we've all done this for a while. Do you really want the Fed to always, kind of, be in charge? I'd say no.
I mean, we know rate cuts are coming. Maybe it's gonna be three or four. That's fine. When's the first cut? You know, I think Fed fund futures, last I looked, was about a 15% chance of a cut in May. We would say it's more like 30% or 40%. We're not saying it's gonna happen.
But we do have another CPI coming in. We do have another two PCEs. I mean, as we looked yest-- a couple days ago on, you know, core-- core CPI, you can take out X shelter, we're running like 2% the last six months and last year. We all know shelter kind of is fluky with the numbers. So we're optimistic that, hey, there's still some cuts coming, but it's all about the economy.
SEANA SMITH: So, Ryan, if-- if they do cut in May, if they end up, your expectations obviously a little bit more optimistic than what we're seeing priced in more broadly for the market. Going off of what you were just saying about broader breadth that we've seen within the market, is that a trend that you see expanding here in the coming months?
RYAN DETRICK: Well, we do. I mean, that was one of our big themes this year. Of course, we all tech and communications did great, this broadening out. I mean, the group that no one's talking about-- if you look at the models we run for our Carson partners, we're the most overweight mid caps. No-- everybody's small caps or large caps. Mid caps are quietly leading, that kind of passing of the baton.
If you would have told me, you know, six weeks ago, Apple would be down, you know, Tesla would be down as much as it is. And, oh, by the way, rate cut expectations would be pushed back. I mean, I would have said, ooh, we might be down. But we're not, right?
And, again, that's the key thing. So this rotation is so good-- nice-- the last point on this. The Russell 2000 has been tracking in that range, it's starting to pop above. I know it's not an all-time high.
JARED BLIKRE: Almost.
RYAN DETRICK: But almost, it's inching closer. We like small and mid to continue to kind of lead really the rest of this year. And we think it's still a bull market.
SEANA SMITH: All right, Ryan Detrick, always great to have you, especially when you're on set here with us. Thanks so much for hopping on with us this morning. Carson Group's chief market strategist, thanks Ryan.