Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) are eyeing a record finish for the second straight week following a decline in global stockpiles. Vectis Energy Partners principal Tamar Essner joins Catalysts to discuss the commodity's outlook and how the election may impact prices.

"OPEC has about 5.5 million barrels that are offline that we know that they want to monetize. They want to bring that to market. At the same time, there is a big increase in supply that's expected from non-OPEC countries next year. So in the context of a demand picture, that's still strong, but weakening at the margin. That's a very tough situation. And I think that the oil market wants to sort of force OPEC's hand to do something either to change strategy or to deepen cuts even further, which would be very painful for them to do," Essner tells Yahoo Finance.

She notes that it will be "very painful" for OPEC to cut production further as they are already currently at a record-high level of production cuts. While demand is also at record highs, she explains that OPEC is in a "very tough situation" as they subsidize production in other countries and lose market share.

With the presidential election less than two months away, Essner believes that it will not meaningfully impact oil in the short term. She explains that while many see oil as a black-and-white issue between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Essner argues that it's not as simple as Trump wanting to drill more:

"I think companies in the US will be more disciplined on their production. Even if they did increase a little bit more, some of that would be offset with policies that would encourage more demand use of oil in terms of less vehicle efficiency. It's really difficult to say what he [Trump] would do on a foreign policy perspective. We're most keenly looking to see whether he increases enforcement on sanctions of Iranian oil because that could be bullish in the short term for prices. But there's been so much sanction evasion. And these countries, particularly Iran, has gotten better at that anyway."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.

This post was written by Melanie Riehl