First Republic’s collapse: ‘There will be more bank failures,’ analyst
First Republic Bank (FRC) was seized by federal regulators on Monday, and its operations were sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) making it the fourth bank failure this year. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said after the deal was announced that “this part of the crisis is over.” But not everyone agrees. Dick Bove, Odeon Capital Group Financial Strategist, joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the risk he sees for more bank failures.
Bove says that those who benefited from Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic’s failures will be looking for a new target to bring down. “The antelopes are being prowled by the lions here and the lions are going to find other ones to attack and bring down,” he told Yahoo Finance.
Bove explains some criteria a “lion” may be watching for in a new target, including large portfolio of fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate, and a gap between the bank’s real values and published values. Those are among the qualities that could put a regional bank on the chopping block.
Watch the full interview with Seana Smith here.
Key video moments:
00:00:07 On the risk of more bank failures
00:00:15 On elements that make a bank a target for a takedown
00:01:02 On lions vs. antelopes
Video Transcript
- Dick, are there risks of more failures? This is the fourth regional lender, fourth lender here to collapse this year. Could more be on the brink?
DICK BOVE: Oh, I think there's absolute certainty of it. Just think about the fact that people made a huge amount of money here. In other words, those people who have driven SDB out of business, who benefited from the signature failure, who benefited from the first Republic slow die, they made a lot of money.
And then now looking around to find another target, another bank which is in a position where they're going to go under. And what they're looking for is, does the bank have a large portfolio of fixed rate mortgages. Does the bank have a huge amount of commercial real estate. Does the bank have a huge gap between its real, if you will, values and its published values.
In other words, when you pick up the bank statement and you see it's got XYZ in assets, and ABC in equity, do they really have it. Or are they, do they have a number that they're publishing which fails to recognize marking to marking. So they'll be out there. They're prowling. The antelopes, are being prowled by the lions here, and the lions are going to find other ones to attack and bring down. So yes, there will be more bank failures.