What jobless claims, July retail sales spell for rate cuts

Fresh reads on jobless claims and retail sales are easing recession fears and reinforcing the view that the US economy is still on solid footing. Yahoo Finance Reporter Josh Schafer breaks down the latest economic data and whether the US is on track for a recession.

Schafer notes that a weak July jobs report stoked recession fears earlier in the month, kicking off a three-day market sell-off. Goldman Sachs raised its recession odds from 15% to 25%, however, he emphasizes that the move does not signal an incoming recession. Rather, it indicates that the risks are more elevated, especially as concerns over the labor market grow. Yet, it's still important to recognize that there has not been an increase in layoffs, and with the jobless claims and July's retail sales print, the economy is shaping up to be more resilient than initially expected.

"I think most people feel like based on inflation falling, the Fed [Federal Reserve] is offsides, right? Because when you think about inflation falling and how much more restrictive that makes interest rates, the rates are actually getting more restrictive essentially by the month, by the day. And so that is why a lot of people are calling for the Fed to start easing. It's not necessarily simply as straight of a readthrough as the data. It's also just with inflation falling, at some point, they need to bring rates a little bit lower," Schafer adds.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl