S&P 500: Election, Fed policy pose risks to Wall Street's 6,000 forecast

In This Article:

More Wall Street investors and strategists are forecasting that the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) could reach the 6,000 level by 2024's year-end. However, several key factors, such as the upcoming election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy, could impact this projection.

To provide insights on this outlook, CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall joins Market Domination.

"When you look to what typically happens in the final two months of an election year, the S&P gains about 3%," Stovall states. He believes that the mere "enthusiasm" in markets "from just the election being over" could be enough to drive the index above 6,000.

However, Stovall cautions that the focus would then shift to the Federal Reserve and its interest rate decisions. He explains that "when it comes to rate cuts, wanting is more profitable than having." Historically, the S&P 500 has gained significantly more when the Fed signals an upcoming rate cut than when the actual cut is implemented.

Stovall notes that if the economy remains "fairly strong with a very resilient employment picture," the Fed may choose to "sit on its hands" at its upcoming November or December meetings rather than cut rates as widely anticipated. "We still think they're gonna cut twice, but the uncertainty is out there," he tells Yahoo Finance.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.

This post was written by Angel Smith