The real housing crisis is driven by supply: Policy expert

President Biden delivered an impassioned State of the Union address last night, touting economic growth under his administration and promising tax credits to aid first-time homebuyers.

BTIG Director of Policy Research Isaac Boltansky shares his perspective on Biden's policy proposals hinted at in his speech and whether they are feasible, particularly on the housing front.

"We're going to see hopefully, I think, passage of a very narrow tax bill. But none of the proposals that the president went through last night on the tax side are going to become law," Boltansky tells Yahoo Finance. "I think we also have to look at these through a political lens. Yes, they may be popular conceptually, but this country is suffering from a housing shortage."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

[AUDIO LOGO]

BRAD SMITH: President Biden taking the stage last night for his third State of the Union address. The president making his case to the American people ahead of the 2024 election. One key area for the White House, lowering the cost of housing for all Americans. Let's listen to his latest proposals.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down, to put toward their mortgages when they buy their first home or trade up for a little more space. Now pass and build and renovate 2 million affordable homes and bring those rents down.

[APPLAUSE]

BRAD SMITH: And so how realistic are Biden's latest economic plans? Joining us now, we've got Isaac Boltansky, who is the BTIG Director of Policy Research. Isaac, always great to have you on here with us. First and foremost, let's just start there. What is the realistic nature of putting these plans into action here? And perhaps, we should begin on the housing front, given that that's the clip that we just played there.

ISAAC BOLTANSKY: Yeah, look on the housing side, I think that we can say with emphatic certainty that none of these tax proposals will become law. This Congress is effectively at its end. We're going to see a few fights over funding. We're going to see, hopefully, I think, passage of a very narrow tax bill. But none of the proposals that the president went through last night on the tax side are going to become law.

And I think we also have to look at these through a political lens. Yes, they may be popular conceptually, but this country is suffering from a housing shortage. The issue here is supply. We are-- there's a dearth of, by some estimates, 4 million houses. We need 4 million more units to keep up with demand. And so there's some befuddling element here as to why we would try to stoke demand, given that the real crisis is driven by supply.

SEANA SMITH: Isaac, I'm curious just to get your thoughts, more broadly speaking, on the tone that President Biden struck last night. You were just talking about some of the proposals that he walked through when it comes to housing.

He also discussed that he wanted to raise the corporate tax rate-- something he has talked about time and time again-- to 28%. The corporate minimum tax to 21%. What is this ultimately going to do, do you think, in terms of the narrative and what we're going to hear from President Biden and his team as we get closer and closer to that election?

ISAAC BOLTANSKY: The general election for 2024 has already begun. I think that's the message that we should take from the speech last night, coupled with the results from Super Tuesday. And so, the focus on the economic side, whether it was on the tax portion or on junk fees, which was a huge component of the speech as well, was intended to draw a contrast with former President Trump.

That was the purpose. None of those proposals, at least legislatively, will become law. We'll continue to see administrative work on junk fees. I think that's an area that investors should keep their eyes on, because there is some wood to chop there. But everything else was simply meant to contrast this president with his predecessor. And it's going to be something that you're going to hear repeatedly on the campaign trail, because that's an area where they think they can get young voters and independents to come over to their side.

Advertisement