Speaker McCarthy denies stopgap bill: What it means for a govt. shutdown?

Thu, Sep 28, 2023, 8:26 AM

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.) has raised the probability of a government shutdown by turning down the Senate's bipartisan stopgap spending bill. McCarthy is still trying to get holdouts within the House GOP on board with his own spending proposal. If funding lapses, the effects could include passport processing delays, federal employee furloughs, and the U.S. military not getting paid.

The risks of a shutdown received little attention during Wednesday's Republican GOP debate, prompting criticism from former Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Holtz-Eakin that the contenders showed little "concern" for the issue.

"I did not hear a great concern about the shutdown," Holtz-Eakin tells Yahoo Finance adding, "I think the biggest reason to be concerned is this reinforces the view of the Fitch [credit rating] agency and others that the U.S. does not have the capability of managing it's finances and that's not the message you want to send the global capital markets."

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Video Transcript

BRIAN SOZZI: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy rejected the Senate's bipartisan stopgap spending bill on Wednesday night, likely increasing the chances of a government shutdown this weekend. Meanwhile, McCarthy is working on getting a few holdouts from his party to agree to his spending bills. Amid all the back and forth, our next guest sees 100% chance of the government shutting down this weekend.

Joining us now is Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former congressional budget officer. Director, always great to get some time with you. Doug, before we even really dig into the ramifications of a government shutdown, however long it might extend, what is your takeaway from that GOP debate tonight? We've been talking to a lot of folks this morning. No real contender is sticking out. Perhaps that fuels the hand of a Donald Trump, but we'd love to get your take.

DOUG HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, I think that is the right take. This was a debate that didn't move the needle very much. The-- Mr. Trump went in with a pretty large lead. Nobody separated themselves from the others on that stage. And really, it was more of the same. I think Nikki Haley continues to look strong and confident but not gaining on Mr. Trump, and that's the real message out of the debate.

BRAD SMITH: OK, so of what you heard in the debate, did anybody seem concerned about a shutdown, and why should they be?

DOUG HOLTZ-EAKIN: I did not hear a great concern about the shutdown. I think the biggest reason to be concerned is this reinforces the view of the Fitch rating agency and others that the US does not have the capability of managing its finances, and that's not a message that you want to send to global capital markets.

BRIAN SOZZI: And Doug, you said you see 100% chance of a shutdown. What is the probability on another credit rating for this country? I think a lot of folks are trying to understand what are-- just continuing contentious discussions like this around government shutdowns going back several years ago, what is it doing to the confidence in the US financial system?

DOUG HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, first of all, you know, I think the reason we're going to get shut down is pretty simple. If you look at the proposals so far, there's nothing that can pass the House with 218 Republican votes that will pass the Senate. So there's no path to-- to law at this point. And the main reason for that is that there's no reason for Democrats to save the Republicans from themselves in the House the first time around. Once that happens, it's a very different story. So I don't expect a long shutdown.

The government shuts down, and at that point, the Senate writes a bill that is consistent with the White House's goals, it goes over to the House, and lots of Democrats vote for it, they jam it through, and the president signs it. So there's a path to funding the government with this-- with this hiccup, and so I don't think global investors are going to be terribly shaken by two, three, one-week shutdown. It's just not a good news story, but it's not terrifically bad news either.

BRAD SMITH: If we were to see a shutdown that lasted past a week, two weeks even, then who would be the biggest loser in that scenario?

DOUG HOLTZ-EAKIN: I think the biggest loser in that scenario are the US troops. Unlike past situations like this, there has been no provision to pay the troops during the shutdown, and it's a disgrace to not take care of the US military for those who are defending the values of this country. I view that as an enormous error on the part of the Congress and something they should not be proud of.

Then there's the sort of nuisance value for everybody in the United States. You can't renew your passport. If you need flood insurance to close on your new home, you can't get the insurance policy, can't close on your home. There's just a slew of basic government services. Exporters can't get licenses, which will happen, and which will interfere with the conduct of normal economic and personal affairs.

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Speaker McCarthy denies stopgap bill: What it means for a govt. shutdown?

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