Stifel CEO: 'Economy needs to be cooled a little bit' so supply catches up with demand

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Stifel CEO & ChairmanRon Kruszewski joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Q4 earnings, inflation, supply chains, and the U.S. economic recovery.

Video Transcript

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JULIE HYMAN: Well, Stifel Financial earlier this week revealed its 26th straight year of record net revenue, fifth consecutive year of record earnings as well. Let's bring in Stifel chairman and CEO Ron Kruszewski.

Ron, good to see you. Thanks for being here. It's always a pleasure to talk to you.

I want to start actually, not on the earnings, but perhaps future earnings implications from what were you seeing with interest rates. That's because both Brian and I were kind of surprised today. Bank of America coming out and saying we could see as many as seven rate increases from the Fed this year.

You guys saw an increase in net interest income last quarter. But you've got other stuff that might offset that from rising rates. So talk me through the effect on your business if there were, say, seven rate increases.

RON KRUSZEWSKI: Well, we did say that with four increased rate increases, basically 100 basis point shock today to interest rates. If it happened today, our earnings would be up almost a quarter of a billion dollars. And so we are, as an organization, we're very, as they say in our business, asset sensitive.

So rising rates would be very good for Stifel. Very good. On the other hand, rates, seven rate increases may also shock the economy. And that could possibly even cause a recession.

So that could have some other impacts on our investment banking and on capital raising. But overall, rising rates, as long as they occur in a measured and maybe communicated manner, would be very good, very good for Stifel.

BRIAN SOZZI: And Ron, Stifel works very closely with a lot of middle-- just companies in the middle, middle area of banking or however you want to look at it. What are they telling you right now? Is the economy so strong that it could handle seven rate hikes, or even five or six?

RON KRUSZEWSKI: Well, I think first of all, today, while demand is huge, and that's what we're understanding is that there was been so much money put into this economy both fiscal and monetary through QE and low interest rates that demand is great. And businesses are struggling with meeting demand and keeping people at work.

And the whole combination of the pandemic and everything has made it hard on business to keep up with demand. And of course, what they're doing is raising prices. I mean, this is economics 101.

So I believe that the economy needs to be cooled a little bit so that supply can catch up with demand. We all learned that. I did 40 years ago. I don't think it's changed.