Federal Reserve officials are still trying to make up their minds on the trajectory of interest rate cuts this year while wringing out more prominent inflation elements from the economy.
Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Market Domination in-studio to weigh on the Fed's dual mandate ahead of Friday's March jobs report, naming the credit market and banking systems as the silent "third leg" of the dual mandate.
"We'll find out tomorrow whether the job market is healthy. It's important to keep the dual mandate in mind... stable prices [are] closer, but not there yet. [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell is, among them, acknowledging that," Sosnick tells Yahoo Finance. "Full employment, we're still pretty much there. Yes, we took up to 3.9% on the unemployment. Tomorrow, we're expecting a 3.8% tick, but anything that starts with a three pretty much sounds like full employment."
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination.
Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: As we've pushed back the number of rate cuts and the timing of rate cuts this year, equities have performed quite well, in part because it's being pushed back because the economy seems to be still growing at a decent pace. OK. So if there are no rate cuts this year, and it's still for that reason, can equities still perform OK?
STEVE SOSNICK: Yes. The economy-- yeah. Because you hit the nail on the head, Julie. If we're not getting rate cuts because the economy is good, I'll take good economy over rate cuts any time. That was the question we came into as the year started. And I'm actually amazed that the market answered it so painlessly was, how do we get both a soft landing and six or seven rate cuts because they're not both-- they're not happening together? Well, we seamlessly took out the idea of the rate cuts, which is fine if it's because of the strong economy.
But then if you start to throw in some economic worries, if you start to throw in oil price pressures, well, that sort of sounds a little more stagflationary. It ties the Fed's hands without necessarily getting the economic boost. That's not necessarily the scenario wants to hear. We're a ways away from that right now. But I think we're seeing a little defensiveness ahead of the jobs numbers tomorrow. And after having a rip roaring end to the third quarter, we're getting a little hangover this week.
JOSH LIPTON: Steve, you point out the risks of cutting, what about the folks who say, listen, the risks of not cutting as well? And you know that argument, you're too high for too long, you might break something.