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Trump conviction will be 'a blip' for elections, expert says

Sat, Jun 1, 2024, 4:00 AM

Following former President Donald Trump's felony conviction in his hush money trial, concern has sparked around how this legal development will influence voter sentiment in the upcoming presidential election. BTIG's Director of Policy Research Isaac Boltansky joins Catalysts to discuss the potential impact on voters and markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC).

Boltansky cites current polling trends that recorded how voters would react to a Trump conviction, revealing "he would lose on average about 6 points of support." However, he notes that the lost support did not shift toward supporting Biden but rather fell into the "unsure" category. This suggests "that there is going to be a temporary drop in support here that could easily revert back to Trump," with Boltansky describing it as "a blip" in the overall election picture.

Regarding which candidate would be better for markets, Boltansky says, "There's a reason that 60-plus percent of Americans don't want either candidate. But when we peel back some of the layers, we understand the nuanced differences in their policies that can then help you make an investment decision."