Trump has 'nothing but runway' for winning GOP nom.: Expert

Mon, Jan 22, 2024, 2:38 PM

Only two remain in the Republican primary race: Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Former President Donald Trump. With a clear victory in the Iowa caucus and contenders like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropping out, the possibility of Trump becoming the GOP’s nominee is becoming more possible for many.

Veda Partners Managing Partner and Director of Economic Policy Henrietta Treyz joins Yahoo Finance Live to weigh in on the ongoing Republican primary races and what it would take for Trump to regain the nomination or even be reelected.

Speaking on securing a win in the New Hampshire primaries, and eventually the party nomination, Treyz believes that the choice is clear “the path forward for Haley is nonexistent and the path forward for Trump is nothing but runway.”

In the general election, according to Treyz, Trump may be a “turnout machine,” but when turnout is high, the Democratic Party appears to benefit more. Treyz notes that Trump “is at his ceiling” in terms of low disapproval ratings and “Biden is at his floor” considering the various economic challenges the US is facing, but this does not indicate a sure win for Trump.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Eyek Ntekim

Video Transcript

JOSH LIPTON: Let's turn to the presidential election. It's now technically a two-person race for the Republican nomination ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. But our next guest says no matter the results, Former President Donald Trump has the nomination locked up. Joining us now is Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners director of economic policy and managing partner.

Henrietta, it is always good to see you. So New Hampshire primary tomorrow, Henrietta. But you say, listen, it doesn't matter the showing that Haley has, you think this is said and done. This is Trump versus Biden?

HENRIETTA TREYZ: I get a lot of questions-- thanks for having me, guys-- about you know whether Haley could blow it out, get major leads, and even come in first in New Hampshire, whether that would move my needle, and I just can't find a way. New Hampshire is a quirky state that used to be critically important in a contested primary, but this just isn't one. The path forward for Haley is nonexistent. And the path forward for Trump is nothing but runway.

You got Nevada coming up next and then South Carolina, Haley's home state, and she's getting routed there by double digits in every single poll. So I don't see a path forward for her beyond tomorrow. It'll be exciting to watch, but that's the end of the story for her until potentially the conventions this summer. But that's going to be a Hail Mary pass, sort of a Black swan event that we can't predict at this time.

JULIE HYMAN: So what can we predict, Henrietta, then beyond that? You know I was just at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week and the conventional wisdom seems there to be that President Trump is going to win re-election. Not that a lot of folks there were necessarily happy about that, but they seem to be at least preparing for that eventuality. What do you think? I mean, I know it's a little far away, but what do you think at this point?

HENRIETTA TREYZ: No, that's fair. It's my job to predict, so I appreciate it I wasn't cool enough to go to Davos, but I understand that a lot of people were wildly-- or sorry, not wildly, but overwhelmingly expecting that Trump would win.

And that's interesting because when I tour around with investors in New York and around here domestically, I don't get that response very often. It's usually about 80% to 90% of folks expecting that the polls will be tight throughout, but that Biden will ultimately win. And the reason for that is that every polling data metric we have since 2016 suggests that Trump is a turnout machine. But unfortunately for Trump, the turnout when it's high like it was in 2018, 2022, and in the referendums we've seen from Ohio to Kentucky over the last couple of years since the Dobbs decision, is that high turnout benefits the Democratic Party. And you can see that in the House, the Senate, and obviously the White House given that Biden is the president.

So I think that that unique set of circumstances where you see the polls suggesting they're neck and neck is really not indicative of how turnout ultimately lands. And the way that I phrase it to investors is I think Trump is at his ceiling right now. He's got the lowest disapproval ratings that he has seen since he left office, which is a weird way of saying he's got his highest favorable numbers while Biden is at his floor. And that's happening just as economic data is turning a corner on the consumer sentiment side, which is a lag from what economic data has been telling us fundamentally on inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment for many months now.

Terms

and

WA Consumer Health Privacy Policy

Your privacy controls

News

Life

Entertainment

Finance

Sports

New on Yahoo

Yahoo Finance

Trump has 'nothing but runway' for winning GOP nom.: Expert

Video Transcript

Recommended Stories