President-elect Donald Trump has been announcing his Cabinet nominations with names like Elon Musk, Matt Gaetz, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix. BTIG director of policy research Isaac Boltansky joins Madison Mills and Brad Smith on Catalysts to outline who's in consideration to be Trump's Treasury secretary and what the nomination means for investors.
Boltansky names former Soros Fund Management investing chief Scott Bessent, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, and Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty as top candidates for the position. He tells Yahoo Finance, "What we've seen over the past few days is [that ] Bessent was the clear frontrunner, and I think he has been fading pretty quickly here. The Elon Musk commentary over the weekend, I think, was noteworthy," Boltansky tells Yahoo Finance, nodding to Musk's public endorsement of Lutnick.
He adds, "I hope by the end of the week we know who the Treasury secretary nominee is. I think that person is going to, probably, be easily confirmed if it's one of the folks we've been talking about. But what I keep reminding clients [is that] whoever this person is, is not going to be deciding policy on the big ticket items like tariffs, like immigration policy, all that's still coming out of the Oval Office. This is still going to be a presidency that is driven by what Trump wants and when Trump wants it."
"If we have Bessent as the pick, I think that it's going to reinforce what many of us, including myself, believe, which is that the market is ultimately going to be a governor on some of Trump's policy moves. And it could be a replay of what we saw previously [which] was the Trump administration viewing itself as a quote, mark-to-market administration and really tying itself to the performance of the stock market. And so that's what Bessent tells us. If it's Lutnick, I think that the market needs to prepare for, I think, a more aggressive pushing on the tariff side of the story and perhaps not as much interest in near-term volatility in markets. That's how the framing comes out for me. In between there is everyone else, and one of the reasons that I keep mentioning Senator Hagerty's name is, I think, that he fits kind of perfectly in between those two poles."
Boltansky notes, "I know that that there is concern at how the Treasury secretary pick work has gone so far, but I think it underscores how important Trump views the business community, the economic issues that are ahead of us, and there's a reason that it's taking so long."
Note: Apollo Global Management is Yahoo's parent company.