US housing market recovery will be 'slow trickle': Economist
The US housing market is long overdue to catch a break as experts believe peaking mortgage rates have come just in time alongside Fed forecasts planning for interest rate cuts in 2024. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather tells Yahoo Finance this could be a setup for a slow recovery for homebuyers.
"It's going to be more of a slow trickle of people deciding that 'you know, I can't wait any longer and I want to move,'" Fairweather comments, "but a strong economy does mean that more people are moving for job opportunities — they feel more confident, they feel like even though rates are high, they can make it work for their budget."
Fairweather also comments on the rise in "nepo-homebuyers" as more Americans receive assistance from family in order to purchase a home.
Click here to watch the full interview on the Yahoo Finance YouTube page or you can watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live here.
This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: I mean, when we look at history and we look at other mortgage rate cycles where we've seen a big increase in rates, how long do buyers tend to wait, right?
I mean, it's difficult to time this stuff, but do they wait for a half a percentage point decline?
How does it sort of tend to play out?
DARYL FAIRWEATHER: It depends on what situation the buyer is, and if the buyer is debating whether to rent versus buy.
It's still going to be more affordable to rent in most of America compared to buying.
And if a homeowner is considering whether it's a good time to sell and move again, it depends on what the price point is of their next home.
If they're downsizing, then these rates don't matter so much because they can use their equity to pay more in cash.
But if they're upgrading to a newer, more expensive home, then these rates matter a lot, and any little movement is going to have a big impact on their budget.
JOSH LIPTON: And, Daryl, sometimes when you'll hear people, they'll make the argument that what's going to break us out of this impasse here in the housing market is just life, life events.
People, they get married, they get divorced, they have kids, the kids go off to college.
Is that enough, do you think, to kick-start the housing market?
DARYL FAIRWEATHER: I think life events tend to happen sporadically.
So I don't think it's the kind of thing where, all of a sudden, everybody is getting married or getting divorced at the same time.
It's going to be more of a slow trickle of people deciding that, I can't wait any longer and I want to move.
But a strong economy does mean that more people are moving for job opportunities.
They feel more confident.
They feel like even though rates are high, they can make it work for their budget.
So that's a positive, is that the economy is still quite strong.
JULIE HYMAN: Daryl, I want to go back to something that you guys wrote about recently, the so-called nepo home buyers, right, that we were seeing because of the affordability problems, we were seeing home buyers, particularly first-time home buyers, get help from family.
Is this a big change compared with history?
Are more home buyers needing to get that kind of help?
Put it in perspective for us.
DARYL FAIRWEATHER: What's different now is that mortgage rates are very high.
And prices are very high.
So if you're trying to scrap together a down payment, it is very difficult.
And the more of a down payment you can put together, that means the lower your monthly mortgage payment is going to be.
So if you only have enough money to put 5% down, that means you're going to have a really big monthly mortgage payment.
But if you have help from family and you can get to 20%, or you can get even above 20%, and that means that monthly payment is going to be much more affordable to you.
So having that help, having somebody to give you a cash gift, is a huge advantage in a market like this.