Why a popular recession indicator may not be right this time

The September jobs report brought positive news for Wall Street as it had growing concerns about the state of the labor market since early August. July's jobs report saw unemployment tick up to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — and a broader market sell-off. With unemployment ticking down to 4.1% in September, investors are breathing a sigh of relief.

Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin joins Morning Brief to discuss what the print signals about the health of the economy and whether a recession in the US is on the horizon.

"Everyone was focused on the Sahm Rule conditions being met. You know, the unemployment rate had risen a fair amount from its prior 12-month low. Typically, that's an indicator of recession. But this cycle has felt very different in a lot of ways," Sockin tells Yahoo Finance.

He notes that historically, when the Sahm rule has been triggered, jobless claims usually rise in the several quarters before. However, this wasn't necessarily the case when the Sahm Rule was triggered in the July jobs report. In addition, consumer trends tend to roll over. Yet, the consumer has remained resilient over these last several months.

"You're really not seeing the signs in other data that the economy is in recession. Really, what it's been this time around is the labor market moderating has been sending those recessionary signals. But if you look around elsewhere in the economy, you're not really seeing that. So to me, this kind of reinforces what I see elsewhere in the economy, which is the data still feel like a soft landing. And I think this reinforces that," Sockin explains.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl