James Rickards’ “Four Horsemen of the Dollar Apocalypse”
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In recent years, it's become conventional knowledge that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is under threat. In his new book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, James Rickards makes a compelling case for not just why the dollar will lose its reserve status, but how.
In the book and the accompanying video, Rickards, a veteran investment banker and hedge fund manager, describes four different scenarios by which the dollar will lose its reserve status, which he calls the "Four Horsemen of the Dollar Apocalypse":
The "Kumbaya Approach": Since 2000, the dollar has fallen from 70% of the world's currency reserves to 60% today as nations diversify their holdings into euros, gold, yuan and other dollar alternatives. U.C. Berkeley professor Barry Eichengreen, among others, argue this diversification trend will continue until we live in a world of multiple reserve currencies. But Rickards says this "Kumbaya approach" is destined to fail because without a gold standard it will be "a race to the bottom" as nations seek competitive devaluations. (See: The Next Global Crisis: Currency Wars Have Already Begun, Rickards Says)
IMF as Global Central Bank: Since 1969, the IMF has had the ability to print Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which nations can use to maintain a portion of their currency reserves. Although not available for use in private transactions (yet), Rickards notes SDRs can be used by nations to settle trade balances with other nations. "The SDR is world money, controlled by the IMF, backed by nothing and printed at will," he writes. The 2008 financial crisis led to a "new concerted effort by the G20 and IMF to promote the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency alternative to the dollar."
If and when the world loses faith in the dollar, expect the G20 and IMF to redouble efforts to make SDRs the globe's new reserve currency, Rickards says.
Go for Gold: Like many others, Rickards advocates a return to the gold standard. (See: Bye-Bye Bernanke? The Case for the Gold Standard)
Unlike most fans of the gold standard, he actually has a plan to return to a gold-backed monetary system without causing major upheaval to the global financial system by addressing three key questions: What's the definition of 'money' (M1, M2, etc.)? What percentage of the money supply should be backed by gold? Will the U.S. act alone or in concert with other nations? "Answer those questions and it's really just 8th-grade math" to figure out what the implied price of gold will be, he says.