Could China pose a risk to the 2014 global economy?
Forecasters are increasingly describing clear skies ahead for the global economy and markets in 2014. But are investors wise to ignore potential storm clouds gathering in the East, where China’s huge banking system is undergoing a fresh cash crunch?
Overnight benchmark lending rates among Chinese banks rose to 8.94% Monday from 8.21% Friday. Not far below the 2014 highs of 9.29% reached in June, when a broader emerging-markets capital-flight scare was underway following early hints that the Federal Reserve was preparing to curtail its quantitative-easing asset-buying pace. The Fed of course did set a reduction in QE last week, yet for now global markets are taking it in stride.
Related: America’s “State-Run” Economy Just Like China’s: The Economist’s Easton
As discussed in the attached video, there are a few reasons Western markets have not been roiled by the latest Chinese bank-funding stresses:
The People’s Bank of China is perceived to have a handle on the situation, treating the spike in funding costs as a temporary scramble for cash by banks seeking to meet year-end capital needs. The central bank has provided only limited cash injections, while pointing out that the system as a whole has ample reserves.
As always when it comes to China, investors assume a great deal of control to the authorities, suggesting that the central bank could supply all needed cash if it so chose, as it ultimately did in the summer. Back then markets feared the PBoC was actively looking to “bleed the patient” in a painful way by forcing some weaker lenders out of business. Today investors are less jittery about this prospect. Michael Block, strategist at Rhino trading, addressed this common view in comments to clients this morning:
“I have said before that there has to be a method to the PBoC’s madness. Are they shaking out money launderers, perhaps chunky ones with funny haircuts in Pyongyang? Is there some massive manipulation game going on, some risk-laden arbitrage that is benefiting someone in Beijing? Or are these just growing pains as the monetary system goes through some evolutionary process? Perhaps it’s a bit of everything I described. I have said before that I do believe that Beijing has a good handle on its banking system. Consider me a bit more skeptical given these latest episodes.”
The Chinese currency has been rising and capital is flowing into the country, providing a certain level of comfort. This suggests no broader capital flight that would badly destabilize the system, thus freeing U.S. markets to calmly drift to yet more new highs Monday morning - correct or not.