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Dell Dealings: Now Microsoft Might Be a Player

Whether Dell (DELL) will be taken private, and at what price if so, continues to produce a variety of angles, and the latest is that one of the buyout participants could be Microsoft (MSFT).

Microsoft Logo: Credit AP
Microsoft Logo: Credit AP


CNBC reported that Microsoft is exploring a contribution of $1 billion to $3 billion toward a deal for Dell. No acquisition has been confirmed, but the pursuit of Dell is said to be led by private-equity firm Silver Lake Partners and Dell founder Michael Dell, reportedly for around $13 to $14 a share.

The key questions here are why would Microsoft do it and whether it would be the most sensible undertaking for the team in Redmond, Wash. Shareholders weren't terribly distressed, but they weren't applauding the notion, either. Microsoft's stock was down 10 cents at $27.15. Dell, meanwhile, was up 2.2% to $13.12.

Without question, Microsoft could afford it, and it knows Dell well, having supplied software to the computer seller for years. Even at the high end of the estimated stake and assuming a worst-case scenario of the investment one day being a total loss, $3 billion isn't going to break the company. As of June 30, Microsoft's balance sheet showed cash, equivalents and short-term investments of $63 billion.

[RELATED: What’s Dell Worth? Let’s Call It $13.61 a Share]

For Microsoft, getting closer to Dell would at a minimum ensure it remains part of whatever shape the company takes in the future without ceding ground to Linux. Like Windows, Linux is run on both Dell PCs and servers. And despite the opinion held by some that Dell is yesterday's news, it still ranks as the No. 3 PC retailer in the world, behind Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Lenovo, and it has a sizable position among business users. That means it's important for Microsoft to keep it close and on good terms.

However, desktop PCs aren't as key to Dell as they once were. Revenue from the product line has dropped from $21.6 billion in 2006 to $14.1 billion last year, and during that time, the segment's percent of overall sales has fallen steadily from 39% to 23% over the span. This year, analysts are looking for PC sales of around $13 billion from Dell, according to FactSet. So while it is a large player in personal computers, the tremendous competition in the sector has been making it harder on the division as the years have passed.

Dell PC Sales
Dell PC Sales

Source: SEC filings, FactSet

At Microsoft, of its 2012 revenue of $73.7 billion, some $18.4 billion of that was attributable to the Windows division, about three-quarters of which comes from the Windows OS on PCs. All told, Microsoft estimates that PC sales last year were flat to up 2% compared with 2011.