What McDonald's Has Going Right (and Wrong)
Listless sales, fickle consumers, changing tastes and competition are making it harder for McDonald's (MCD) to sail along smoothly, as its latest earnings report shows. Though its profits were slightly better than Wall Street projected, revenue wasn't quite up to par.
The threats facing the Oak Brook, Ill., Big Mac seller aren't insignificant, but it's hardly an all-is-lost scenario. The House of Ronald, in fact, has a great deal going for it.
Big sales. McDonald's system will report in the neighborhood of $90 billion in sales for 2013. Last year the company averaged sales of $2.6 million at a U.S. store, trailing only Chick-fil-A among 50 fast food and fast casual restaurant operators cataloged by industry-tracking magazine QSR. That was more than twice the average for the group.
They're everywhere. Whether you're on the highways or in the city, you aren't far from a McDonald's. Another 1,500 to 1,600 are planned this year, on top of the 35,000-plus that already exist globally. As a result of its scale, it holds a substantial convenience advantage in these hurried-up times. It has more U.S. stores than Wendy's (WEN) and Burger King (BKW) combined.
Revamped stores. McDonald's is unquestionably trying to enhance experience, brightening up its stores with a large-scale remodeling plan. The contemporary look hasn't hit every shop yet, but another 1,000 or so will get a makeover in 2014. And it's clear when you visit a variety of stores that customer-service is being stressed. Yes, of course you'll still encounter surlier crew members, but staff often is much cheerier than they were in the recent past.
Money machine. Free cash flow will probably be around $4.6 billion this year. Its ability to reinvest in the business and to send money to shareholders doesn't make McDonald's unique, but it's a very impressive, consistent performer that keeps surprises for investors to a minimum. With a dividend yield of 3.4%, it trails only three other Dow Jones Industrial Average members. Its capacity for controlling costs leaves it with few superiors in the restaurant industry, with net and adjusted earnings margins well above average.
Shareholders get paid. Along with the dividend, which gets raised regularly, investors have had a consistent player that's averaged a 10% price increase annually in the past five years. Not bad, but this is where the situation actually starts to turn. McDonald's has trailed the market, measured by the S&P 500, for the past two years, and it's doing so again in these early days of 2014. It's arguably a case of a stock that will treat you well in times of crisis, although it may underdeliver in bountiful markets. If you like slow and steady, you probably can sleep easily on this stock. If you need more than that, think twice.
With that said, a few serious problems and potential risks have to be addressed eventually, some sooner than others. If they are, even partly, it's a plus for the shares. Notable trouble spots:
Nonexistent same-store sales growth. After years of monthly expansion in this important indicator, McDonald's hit a snag in 2012 with a negative number. Raggedness persisted throughout last year. While full-year comps edged up 0.2% in 2013, that was the result of an increase in average prices at the counter. In the U.S., it was about 3.1% higher than 2012, exceeding the national trend, CFO Peter Bensen said on a conference call.