Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) shareholders have endured a 31% loss from investing in the stock three years ago
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As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 26%. Furthermore, it's down 16% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
View our latest analysis for Alarm.com Holdings
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Alarm.com Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 9.9% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 8.3% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Alarm.com Holdings further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Alarm.com Holdings
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 36% in the last year, Alarm.com Holdings shareholders lost 9.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Alarm.com Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Alarm.com Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.