Analysts revisit AMD stock price targets after earnings

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Advanced Micro Devices shares slumped in early Wednesday trading, dragging its six-month performance into negative territory, after a muted set of third-quarter earnings for the AI-chip maker failed to impress Wall Street.

AMD  (AMD) , which bills itself as the most comprehensive player in the AI-investment space, with divisions covering data centers, servers and personal computers, is attempting to crave into the market-share leadership of Nvidia  (NVDA)  with a new line of high-performance processors.

The group's flagship AI-powering graphics processing unit, dubbed the MI300, is also seeing a surge in demand from hyperscaler clients such as Meta Platforms  (META)  as they ramp up spending to train their massive large language model datasets.

Supplies remain tight, however, given capacity constraints at key assembly facilities and the surge in overall demand, leaving AMD, and others, to carefully manage investor expectations even as the longer-term story remains generationally compelling.

AMD CEO Lisa Su said the total addressable market for AI accelerators will rise to $500 billion by 2028.<p>Travis P&period; Ball&sol;Getty Images</p>
AMD CEO Lisa Su said the total addressable market for AI accelerators will rise to $500 billion by 2028.

Travis P. Ball/Getty Images

"Our opportunities are amplified exponentially by the rapid adoption of AI, which is enabling new experiences that will make high-performance computing and even more essential part of our daily lives, CEO Lisa Su told investors on a conference call late Tuesday.

"In the data center alone, we expect the AI accelerator [total addressable market] will grow at more than 60% annually to $500 billion in 2028," she added. "To put that in context, this is roughly equivalent to annual sales for the entire semiconductor industry in 2023."

AMD 'still clear #2' in AI accelerators: analyst

The group's near-term outlook, however, appeared to disappoint investors as Su laid out a $5-billion-plus 2024 sales forecast for the MI300, as well as around $7.5 billion in fourth-quarter revenue with a gross margin of around 54%.

"Our experts believe AMD is still a clear number 2 player in the AI accelerator market," said Third Bridge analyst Lucas Keh.

"They have a good opportunity to gain incremental share from Nvidia  (NVDA)  with their 325x and 350 Instinct products amidst the current Blackwell delay concerns from major customers, as well as the growing need for compute resources.”

Related: AMD's biggest problem is a massive opportunity

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse, who carries a $180 price target on the stock, sees the MI300 line generating $12 billion in revenue over the medium-term.

"We have no doubt they will get there, just whether it's 2025 or 2026," he said. "In the interim, we view [the] shares largely range-bound in the $150-$170 territory until we gain line of sight to this earnings power, which supports upside to our price target."