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For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Rotork plc (LON:ROR) shareholders, since the share price is down 11% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 15%.
Since Rotork has shed UK£126m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Rotork
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Although the share price is down over three years, Rotork actually managed to grow EPS by 12% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
It's strange to see such muted share price performance despite sustained growth. Perhaps a clue lies in other metrics. Therefore, we should look at some other metrics to try to understand why the market is disappointed.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 9.9% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Rotork more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Rotork is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Rotork in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Rotork the TSR over the last 3 years was -4.4%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!