Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$53m, beating expectations by 22%. Madison Square Garden Sports reported a statutory loss of US$0.31 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Madison Square Garden Sports after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Madison Square Garden Sports

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Madison Square Garden Sports, is for revenues of US$964.3m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 7.1% reduction in Madison Square Garden Sports' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 74% to US$0.75 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$957.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.60 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$256, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Madison Square Garden Sports at US$314 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$230. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Madison Square Garden Sports shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 24% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Madison Square Garden Sports is expected to lag the wider industry.