Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Bonvests Holdings fair value estimate is S$0.85
With S$0.98 share price, Bonvests Holdings appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Bonvests Holdings Limited (SGX:B28) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (SGD, Millions)
S$23.1m
S$25.7m
S$27.9m
S$29.7m
S$31.2m
S$32.5m
S$33.7m
S$34.7m
S$35.7m
S$36.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ 15.11%
Est @ 11.18%
Est @ 8.43%
Est @ 6.51%
Est @ 5.16%
Est @ 4.22%
Est @ 3.56%
Est @ 3.10%
Est @ 2.77%
Est @ 2.55%
Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 11%
S$20.9
S$21.0
S$20.6
S$19.9
S$18.9
S$17.8
S$16.7
S$15.6
S$14.5
S$13.4
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$179m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$437m÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= S$160m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is S$339m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$1.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SGX:B28 Discounted Cash Flow February 4th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bonvests Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.708. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Bonvests Holdings
Strength
Net debt to equity ratio below 40%.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
B28's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine B28's earnings prospects.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Bonvests Holdings, there are three additional elements you should further research:
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SGX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
