Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Geberit AG (VTX:GEBN) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions)
CHF601.2m
CHF608.8m
CHF682.0m
CHF712.8m
CHF735.4m
CHF752.0m
CHF764.0m
CHF772.8m
CHF779.1m
CHF783.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x6
Analyst x6
Analyst x2
Est @ 4.51%
Est @ 3.18%
Est @ 2.25%
Est @ 1.60%
Est @ 1.14%
Est @ 0.82%
Est @ 0.60%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 5.9%
CHF568
CHF543
CHF574
CHF566
CHF552
CHF533
CHF511
CHF488
CHF464
CHF441
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF5.2b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.08%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.9%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF13b÷ ( 1 + 5.9%)10= CHF7.6b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF13b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CHF498, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
dcf
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Geberit as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.168. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Geberit
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Swiss market.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Geberit, there are three essential items you should consider:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Geberit that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does GEBN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SWX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
