To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after glancing at the trends within Gym Group (LON:GYM), we weren't too hopeful.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Gym Group:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.031 = UK￡15m ÷ (UK￡572m - UK￡72m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, Gym Group has an ROCE of 3.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 7.5%.

Check out our latest analysis for Gym Group

In the above chart we have measured Gym Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Gym Group for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Gym Group. About five years ago, returns on capital were 5.1%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Gym Group becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line On Gym Group's ROCE

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 47% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Gym Group could be trading at an attractive price in other respects, so you might find our free intrinsic value estimation for GYM on our platform quite valuable.