Investors in LANXESS (ETR:LXS) from five years ago are still down 47%, even after 4.4% gain this past week
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LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:LXS) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 52% in that half decade.
While the last five years has been tough for LANXESS shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
View our latest analysis for LANXESS
LANXESS wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last half decade, LANXESS saw its revenue increase by 2.5% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 9% for the last five years. We want to see an acceleration of revenue growth (or profits) before showing much interest in this one. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
LANXESS is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. If you are thinking of buying or selling LANXESS stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, LANXESS' TSR for the last 5 years was -47%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that LANXESS shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 44% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 8% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand LANXESS better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for LANXESS you should be aware of.