The monthly Atlantic Blast Furnace 65% Fe pellet premium index as quoted by Platts (the "pellet premium") averaged US$40 per tonne in the first quarter of 2024, down 12% from an average of US$46 per tonne in the same quarter of 2023, as lower steel margins continued to cause steel producers to substitute higher quality pellets with less expensive lower quality iron ore. Based on sales as reported for the LIORC royalty, the overall average price realized by IOC for CFS and pellets, FOB Sept-?les, was approximately US$133 per tonne in the first quarter of 2024, compared to approximately US$136 per tonne in the first quarter of 2023.

Iron Ore Company of Canada Operations

Operations

IOC concentrate production in the first quarter of 2024 of 4.7 million tonnes was 3% higher than the same quarter of 2023 and 5% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023. Concentrate production in the first quarter of 2024 benefited from a lower strip ratio as a result of changes in the mining sequence, which resulted in an increase in the amount of crushed ore that was delivered to the concentrator.

IOC saleable production (CFS plus pellets) of 4.4 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2024 was 3% higher than the same quarter of 2023. Pellet production of 2.5 million tonnes was 15% higher than the corresponding quarter in 2023, due to an increase in the availability of concentrate and fewer plant reliability issues than in 2023. CFS production of 1.9 million tonnes was 9% lower than the same quarter of 2023 mainly due to the higher production of pellets.

Sales as Reported for the LIORC Royalty

Total iron ore sales tonnage by IOC (CFS plus pellets) of 4.4 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2024 was 20% higher than the total sales tonnage for the same period in 2023 and 1% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023.  The increase in IOC sales tonnage was largely a result of improved availability of inventory and timing of vessels. Pellet sales tonnages were 25% higher than the same quarter of 2023 and 7% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023. CFS sales tonnages were 13% higher than the same quarter of 2023 and 6% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023.

Outlook

Rio Tinto's 2024 guidance for IOC's saleable production (CFS plus pellets) remains at 16.7 million to 19.6 million tonnes. This compares to 16.5 million tonnes of saleable production in 2023. IOC continues to focus on upgrading its capital assets through increased capital expenditures.  As reported in the 2023 Annual Report, IOC's capital expenditures for 2024 are forecasted to be US$431 million, up from US$362 million in 2023.

While lower capital investment rates, higher inflation and monetary tightening continue to negatively affect global steel demand, recently seaborne iron ore prices have shown some resiliency. Since the end of the first quarter, iron ore prices have improved. At the end of April 2024, the 65% Fe index was US$131 per tonne or 14% higher than at the end of the first quarter of 2024.  Longer term the outlook for iron ore and high-quality iron ore in particular, is positive.  The World Steel Association forecasts that global steel demand will grow by 1.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. It expects that steel demand in China in 2024 will remain flat, as declining demand from real estate investments is offset by growth in steel demand from infrastructure investments and manufacturing sectors. However, it forecasts broad-based growth in steel demand for the world excluding China of 3.5% per annum over 2024 and 2025, with India emerging as the strongest driver with 8% growth in its steel demand over 2024 and 2025. It also forecasts steel demand in the European Union showing a meaningful pick up in 2025 and continued resilience in the US, Japan and Korea.

Lastly, significant additional demand for the type of high-quality iron ore products that IOC is capable of producing will come from the global transition to green steel.  Currently, steel production accounts for 7% – 9% of the world's greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions.  The transition to steel production by way of the Electric Arc Furnace ("EAF") process and away from the Blast Furnace or Basic Oxygen Furnace process has the potential to substantially reduce GHG emissions.  This transition to EAF technology requires iron ore products with very low deleterious materials and a high iron content, such as those produced by IOC. According to Wood Mackenzie, just 8% of iron ore production is prime grade suitable for green steelmaking and another 15% – 20% can be processed to become such prime grade material.

On April 16, 2024, the Federal Finance Minister tabled the Federal Budget 2024 which proposed an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate for corporations from one half to two thirds for capital gains realized on or after June 25, 2024. If this tax change is passed into law, it will be accounted for in the period of enactment and reflected in the financial results at that time.  LIORC's deferred income taxes payable includes a capital gain equal to the carrying value of its investment in IOC less its cost. If the capital gains rate change is enacted, it would have the impact of increasing deferred income taxes by approximately $25.3 million or $0.40 per share.  This would be a non-cash entry and will only impact LIORC in the event it sells its shares in IOC.

LIORC has no debt and at March 31, 2024 had positive net working capital (current assets less current liabilities) of $30 million, which included the first quarter net royalty payment received from IOC on April 25, 2024 and the LIORC dividend in the amount of $0.45 per share paid to shareholders on the next day.

Respectfully submitted on behalf of the Directors of the Corporation,

John F. Tuer
President and Chief Executive Officer
May 8, 2024

Management's Discussion and Analysis

The following discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the Management's Discussion and Analysis section of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation's ("LIORC" or the "Corporation") 2023 Annual Report, and the financial statements and notes contained therein and the March 31, 2024 interim condensed consolidated financial statements.

Overview of the Business

The Corporation's revenues are entirely dependent on the operations of IOC as its principal assets relate to the operations of IOC and its principal source of revenue is the 7% royalty it receives on all sales of iron ore products by IOC. In addition to the volume of iron ore sold, the Corporation's royalty revenue is affected by the price of iron ore and the Canadian – U.S. dollar exchange rate. The first quarter sales of IOC are traditionally adversely affected by the general winter operating conditions and are usually 15% – 20% of the annual volume, with the balance spread fairly evenly throughout the other three quarters. Because of the size of individual shipments, some quarters may be affected by the timing of the loading of ships that can be delayed from one quarter to the next.

Financial Highlights

The higher revenue, net income and equity earnings from IOC achieved in the first quarter of 2024 as compared to 2023 were mainly due to higher sales tonnages of pellets and CFS, partly offset by lower iron ore prices and pellet premiums. The first quarter of 2024 sales tonnages (CFS plus pellets) were higher by 20%. While CFS sales tonnages were 13% higher than the same quarter in 2023, pellet sales were 25% higher, predominantly due to improved availability of inventory and timing of vessels.

The higher pellet and CFS sales tonnages resulted in royalty income of $56.0 million for the quarter as compared to $46.5 million for the same period in 2023. First quarter 2024 cash flow from operations was $30.0 million or $0.47 per share compared to $19.5 million or $0.30 per share for the same period in 2023. Equity earnings from IOC amounted to $34.3 million or $0.54 per share in the first quarter of 2024 compared to $21.8 million or $0.34 per share for the same period in 2023.

Operating Highlights

IOC sells CFS based on the 65% Fe index.  In the first quarter of 2024, the 65% Fe index averaged US$136 per tonne, a 3% decrease over the average of US$140 per tonne in the first quarter of 2023. Ongoing concerns regarding steel demand, particularly as a result of China's troubled property sector and a 15% increase in iron ore shipments by Vale due to operational improvements during Brazil's traditionally rainy season, contributed to an almost 25% decrease in iron ore prices during the first quarter of 2024. The 65% Fe Index, which started the quarter at a robust US$153 per tonne, finished the quarter at US$115 per tonne.  The monthly pellet premium averaged US$40 per tonne in the first quarter of 2024, down 12% from an average of US$46 per tonne in the same quarter of 2023, as lower steel margins continued to cause steel producers to substitute higher quality pellets with less expensive lower quality iron ore.

Based on sales as reported for the LIORC royalty, the overall average price realized by IOC for CFS and pellets, FOB Sept-?les was approximately US$133 per tonne in the first quarter of 2024 compared to US$136 per tonne in the first quarter of 2023. The decrease in the average realized price FOB Sept-?les in 2024 was a result of lower CFS prices and lower pellet premiums.

Standardized Cash Flow and Adjusted Cash Flow

For the Corporation, standardized cash flow is the same as cash flow from operating activities as recorded in the Corporation's cash flow statements as the Corporation does not incur capital expenditures or have any restrictions on dividends.  Standardized cash flow per share was $0.47 for the quarter (2023 - $0.30).

The Corporation also reports "Adjusted cash flow" which is defined as cash flow from operating activities after adjustments for changes in amounts receivable, accounts payable and income taxes recoverable and payable.  It is not a recognized measure under IFRS. The Directors believe that adjusted cash flow is a useful analytical measure as it better reflects cash available for dividends to shareholders.

The following reconciles standardized cash flow from operating activities to adjusted cash flow.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

The Corporation had $14.4 million in cash as at March 31, 2024 (December 31, 2023 - $13.2 million) with total current assets of $71.9 million (December 31, 2023 - $67.5 million). The Corporation had working capital of $29.7 million as at March 31, 2023 (December 31, 2023 - $27.2 million). The Corporation's operating cash flow was $30.0 million and the dividend paid during the quarter was $28.8 million, resulting in cash balances increasing by $1.2 million during the first quarter of 2024.

Cash balances consist of deposits in Canadian dollars with a Canadian chartered bank. Amounts receivable primarily consist of royalty payments from IOC. Royalty payments are received in U.S. dollars and converted to Canadian dollars on receipt, usually 25 days after the quarter end. The Corporation does not normally attempt to hedge this short-term foreign currency exposure.

Operating cash flow of the Corporation is sourced entirely from IOC through the Corporation's 7% royalty, 10 cents commission per tonne and dividends from its 15.10% equity interest in IOC. The Corporation normally pays cash dividends from its free cash flow generated from IOC to the maximum extent possible, subject to the maintenance of appropriate levels of working capital.

The Corporation has a $30 million revolving credit facility with a term ending September 18, 2026 with provision for annual one-year extensions.  No amount is currently drawn under this facility (2023 – nil) leaving $30.0 million available to provide for any capital required by IOC or requirements of the Corporation.

John F. Tuer
President and Chief Executive Officer
Toronto, Ontario
May 8, 2024

Forward-Looking Statements
This report may contain "forward-looking" statements that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Words such as "may", "will", "expect", "believe", "plan", "intend", "should", "would", "anticipate" and other similar terminology are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements reflect current assumptions and expectations regarding future events and operating performance as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to vary significantly, including iron ore price and volume volatility; the performance of IOC; market conditions in the steel industry; fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and U.S. dollar; mining risks that cause a disruption in operations and availability of insurance; disruption in IOC's operations caused by natural disasters, severe weather conditions and public health crises, including the COVID-19 outbreak; failure of information systems or damage from cyber security attacks; adverse changes in domestic and global economic and political conditions; changes in government regulation and taxation; national, provincial and international laws, regulations and policies regarding climate change that further limit the emissions of greenhouse gases or increase the costs of operations for IOC or its customers; changes affecting IOC's customers; competition from other iron ore producers; renewal of mining licenses and leases; relationships with indigenous groups; litigation; and uncertainty in the estimates of reserves and resources. A discussion of these factors is contained in LIORC's annual information form dated March 12, 2024 under the heading, "Risk Factors". Although the forward-looking statements contained in this report are based upon what management of LIORC believes are reasonable assumptions, LIORC cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this report and LIORC assumes no obligation, except as required by law, to update any forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances. This report should be viewed in conjunction with LIORC's other publicly available filings, copies of which can be obtained electronically on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

Notice:
The following unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements of the Corporation have been prepared by and are the responsibility of the Corporation's management. The Corporation's independent auditor has not reviewed these interim financial statements.

 

 

 

The complete consolidated financial statements for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024, including the notes thereto, are posted on https://www.sedarplus.ca and labradorironore.com.

SOURCE Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation

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