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The FTSE 100 and European indices fell on Tuesday, dragged lower after the first optimistic day in stock markets in over a week. Meanwhile, US stocks followed suit following a record-setting rally.
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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) sank 1.2% by the end of the session, dragged down in part by stocks related to the mining sector. Fresnillo (FRES.L) was trading 7.8% lower as the day ended, while Anglo American (AAL.L) was down 4.5%.
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Mining stocks have had a fright this week as traders weigh the potential affect of a Donald Trump presidency on trade and evaluate the economic situation in China.
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In the UK, a wage report from the Office for National Statistics has revealed wage growth slowing at a slower clip than expected in September. Accelerated wage growth can have a follow-through affect on inflation across the economy.
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The report has bolstered the Bank of England's case for caution in how it moves its key interest rate. Earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee cut the rate 25 basis points to 4.75%. Read more on that here.
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Over in Germany, the DAX (^GDAXI) fell 2.1%. The CAC 40 (^FCHI) in Paris was also down 2.6%.
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The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was 1.9% lower.
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In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) traded just below the flat line.
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The breather in equities came as treasury yields ticked higher. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added about eight basis points to 4.39%.
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Wall Street analysts are signalling that the post-election surge in stocks could soon sputter after lifting the major gauges to record highs. Investors have lifted their exposure to US stocks to an 11-year high, Bank of America found, and those bullish bets lay the ground for profit taking, Citi strategists said.
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Head over to our US site for more market moving news. Thanks for reading!
And here's the oil chart
Oil snaps two days of losses
Said Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at online trading platform IG:
Is Tesla still a Trump trade?
Investors started the week piling into electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA) as another post-election "Trump trade", following CEO Elon Musk's support for Trump's campaign.
Tesla shares closed Monday's session up nearly 9% and were up 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday morning. But this quickly changed at market open, when the stock fell more than 3% in early trade.
The jump in shares over the past week has taken the company's market valuation above the $1tn mark.
In a note on Monday, Wedbush analysts led by Dan Ives, said: "We are raising our price target on Tesla to $400 from $300 as we believe the Trump White House win will be a game-changer for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years."
Meanwhile, hedge funds holding onto bets against the stock have lost massively over the past week.
On Monday, Tesla shorts were down $8.72bn in mark-to-market losses since 4 November, according to data analytics firm S3 Partners.
How US markets are faring at the opening bell
Stocks to watch at the opening bell: Coinbase
Yahoo Finance UK's Vicky McKeever writes:
The rally in investments tied to Donald Trump's US presidential election win has continued to dominate markets.
Shares in cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase (COIN) surged to their highest point in nearly three years on Monday, closing up nearly 20% at $324.24 (£252.93) per share.
This has been fuelled by the rise in bitcoin (BTC-USD), which has continued to reach fresh highs, nearing the $90,000 mark in early trading on Tuesday.
The rally has lifted other cryptocurrencies and stocks linked to the digital tokens, on expectations of a more favourable regulatory environment for the market under Donald Trump, following his US election victory last week.
Trump had pledged during in his campaign to make the US "the crypto capital of the planet" and to accumulate a stockpile of bitcoin.
Halloween and Christmas prep juice UK supermarket sales
Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.3% over the four weeks to 3 November 2024 to reach £11.6 billion, making this the biggest sales month of the year so far according to the latest data from Kantar.
The take-home sales rise coincided with a jump in the number of shopping trips made by households, hitting a four-year high at 480m.
“October 2024 was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020, when people were preparing for the first national lockdown," said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar. "Trip numbers have been going up gradually for some time, but this steady march hasn’t reached pre-covid levels of shopping frequency just yet. The average for each household is slightly over four trips per week.”
Halloween played a part in galvanising sales and there are signs that some consumers are looking further ahead in the calendar, starting their Christmas shopping early.
Kantar data shows 3.2 million households bought at least one pumpkin. Confectionery spending also got a boost to £525m in October as sales of chocolates and sweets both went up, climbing by 13% and 7% each.
ConvaTec stock rallies more than 20%
Medical products company ConvaTec (CTEC.L) stock is the top riser in the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) this morning, up more than 20% despite a broader decline for the index, after a quarterly earnings report showed sales had not been as bad as previously feared.
It reported organic revenue growth of 7.7% for the first 10 months to the end of October, above its previous full-year guidance for 5-7%.
Here's the oil chart
Strong dollar weighs on oil prices
Oil prices remained muted as a stronger dollar, coupled with China’s mixed demand outlook, continues to weigh on crude.
Brent crude futures gained 0.2%, trading at $72 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) climbed 0.1% to $68.14 per barrel at the time of writing.
Recent economic measures from Beijing to support growth stopped short of direct stimulus, dampening sentiment in the world's largest oil importer. China’s oil imports have declined, with indications of easing fuel demand.
“The Brent crude oil front month futures price has fallen by over 5% from last week’s 76.13 high which was made right within the major 75.24-to-76.16 resistance zone. It comprises the August lows as well as the late September and late October highs,” Alex Rudolph, senior technical analyst at IG, wrote.
China’s latest measures to kick-start its economy stopped short of direct stimulus, and inflation remains weak. A gauge of the dollar hit a one-year high as investors adjust to Trump’s electoral victory, making crude oil more expensive for most buyers.
Pound slides against dollar
From our FX and commodities roundup:
The pound slid against the dollar after UK employment data pointed to weakening labour market conditions.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the three months to September, up from 4% in the previous period and surpassing expectations of 4.1%, suggesting further signs of slack in the economy.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the dollar’s value against six major currencies, surged to a four-month high above 105.82. The dollar’s upward momentum was bolstered by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, with his party likely to control both chambers of Congress.
Investors are anticipating that Trump’s policies, including tariff increases and corporate tax cuts, may heighten inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a measured pace in rate adjustments. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a likely 25 basis-point cut in December, though investor sentiment has turned more cautious on this outlook.
Against the euro (GBPEUR=X), sterling was also lower, trading at €1.2051, as concerns over UK economic resilience weighed on the currency.
Gold down 7% from all-time highs
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, said:
UK wage growth slows less than expected, fuels inflation fears
Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:
The pace of UK wage growth eased in September, but not as much as expected, which may reinforce the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious approach to future interest rate cuts.
Average UK weekly earnings, not including bonuses, were 4.8% higher on year over the three months to September, slowing from a 4.9% rise in the previous period. When including bonuses, the figure climbed to 4.3%.
Wage growth excluding bonuses moderated to its slowest pace in over two years, declining from 4.9% in August, according to Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.
“Growth in pay excluding bonuses eased again this month to its lowest rate in over two years,” McKeown said.
“Pay growth including bonuses increased, but for recent periods these figures have been affected by last year’s one-off payments made to public sector workers,” she added.
How stocks are faring in US premarket trade
Metro Bank failings 'went on for too long'
Therese Chambers, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA, said:
Metro Bank fined £16.7m
The UK's leading financial regulator has fined Metro Bank (MTRO.L) almost £16.7m for what it calls "financial crime failings".
The FCA said in a release this morning that between June 2016 and December 2020, Metro failed to have the right systems and controls to adequately monitor over 60m transactions, with a value of over £51bn, for money laundering risks.
Metro automated the monitoring of customer transactions for potential financial crime in June 2016. However, its system did not work as intended. An error in how data was fed into the system meant transactions taking place on the same day an account was opened, and any further transactions until the account record was updated, were not monitored.
Junior staff did raise concerns about some transaction data not being monitored in 2017 and 2018, but these did not result in the issue being identified and fixed. Even once a fix had been put in place in July 2019, Metro did not have a mechanism to consistently check that all relevant transactions were being fed into the monitoring system until December 2020, over four and a half years after the system was implemented.
US stocks closed near record highs
Here's what that looks like:
Monday trade in the US
From our US colleagues:
The Dow and S&P 500 both closed above key milestones Monday as Wall Street built on a roaring post-election rally. The "Trump trade" again took the spotlight in markets, with bitcoin (BTC-USD) nearing $87,000 and shares of Tesla (TSLA) jumping for a fifth straight session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the way higher, up almost 0.7% to close above 44,000 for the first time ever, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed above the 6,000 milestone. Both indexes are coming off their best week of the year, capped by record highs.
Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed just above the flat line as Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Meta (META) lagged.
Small-cap stocks also rose, with the Russell 2,000 (^RUT) hitting its highest level since November 2021.
The markets opened on Veterans Day near all-time highs thanks in large part to expectations for lower corporate taxes and deregulation from President-elect Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut also buoyed the mood.
Good morning!
Hello from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here ready to bring you the markets news of the day.
We've already had a UK wage report from the Office for National Statistics and a slap on the wrist for Metro Bank by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Today there's also first-half results from Vodafone (VOD.L), DCC (DCC.L), 3i Infrastructure (3IN.L) and gambling operator Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.L), among others.
Traders will be looking to tomorrow's consumer inflation report for a read on the health of the US economy.
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