Lowe's beats its quarterly estimates, but negative sales outlook draws focus

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Lowe's (LOW) posted results that beat the Street's estimates, but investors are homing in on its ongoing negative sales growth.

The home improvement retailer posted revenue of $20.17 billion, compared to estimates of $19.93 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.89, versus the $2.82 expected.

"Our results this quarter were modestly better-than-expected, even excluding storm-related activity, driven by high-single-digit positive comps in Pro, strong online sales and smaller-ticket outdoor DIY projects," Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison wrote in the earnings release.

Same-store sales growth was down 1.1%, less than the 2.7% decline anticipated. Continuing softness from DIY shoppers was partially offset by hurricane-related recovery efforts following Hurricanes Helene and Milton and positive same-store sales in its Pro business and online.

"Consumers continue to face affordability challenges as both inflation and interest rates are putting pressure on their [wallets]. Mortgage rates also remained stubbornly high," Ellison said on Lowe's earnings call.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage edged higher again this week, hitting 6.61%.

"Combined with the lack of available homes for sale, housing turnover remains near 30-year lows," Ellison added. "It's unclear when lower rates and improved consumer sentiment will translate into improved home improvement demand."

TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko wrote that the company is "well positioned for the next Home Improvement Cycle."

Positive catalysts in the near future include more Fed rate cuts, hurricane-related recovery efforts, and normalizing "post-pandemic demand trends," Telsey Advisory Group's Joe Feldman wrote in a note to clients prior to results.

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"Lower interest rates [are] expected to spur increased consumer spending in the coming months — historically, there has been about a six to nine-month lag from the first rate cut, particularly in home improvement," he wrote.

In Q3, the Pro business grew by high single-digits, driven by investments the company made to "better serve" small and medium-size core Pro customers. However, DIY customers makes up roughly 75% of Lowe's business.

Lowe's stock moved 3% lower in early trading on Tuesday. The company is expected to end the year with total net sales in the range of $83 billion to $83.5 billion, slightly higher than the previously expected range of $82.7 billion to $83.2 billion.