Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details.

Check out our latest analysis for Lundin Gold

Examining Cashflow Against Lundin Gold's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to September 2024, Lundin Gold recorded an accrual ratio of -0.19. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$491m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$308.0m. Lundin Gold did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Lundin Gold's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$237m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. In the twelve months to September 2024, Lundin Gold had a big unusual items expense. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit look worse than its underlying earnings power.