We recently published a list of 10 Best Alcohol Stocks To Own According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI) stands against the other alcohol stocks.
There is a substantial amount of evidence that suggests that any alcohol consumption, however moderate, can have negative health consequences. Even low levels of drinking can increase the risk of heart disease, high blood pressure, and even certain types of cancer. Understanding that there is no such thing as risk-free drinking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines moderate drinking as 2 drinks or less per day for men and no more than one drink per day for women. Still, despite the well-publicized health risks, more than two-thirds of adult drinkers regularly exceed those levels.
In 2019, the global alcohol consumption, measured in liters of pure alcohol per person of 15 years of age or older, was 5.5 liters, which is a 4.7% relative decrease from 5.7 liters in 2010. As we mentioned in our article – 20 Countries with the Highest Alcohol Consumption per Capita in 2024 – the global alcoholic beverages market size was valued at $1.62 trillion in 2021 and is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 2.2% during the forecast period.
The market is likely to be driven by the increasing global young-adult demographic, coupled with high disposable income and consumer demand for premium/super-premium products. Globally, beer drives the market for alcoholic beverages. Regionally, North America and Asia-Pacific are expected to dominate the market during the forecast period.
The American Liquor Market:
The American liquor industry is overcoming economic headwinds to meet changing consumer preferences as it chips away at the dominance of beer. According to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, the spirits revenue market share grew from 28.7% in 2000 to 42.1% in 2022, while beer held a 41.9% market share that year. Thus, in 2022, the spirits industry surpassed beer in revenue for the first time ever. The trend continued in 2023 when the spirits market share again totaled more than 42%. The spirits supplier sales in the United States totaled $37.7 billion last year, while volumes rose 1.2% to 308.8 million 9-liter cases.
The rise to the top for spirit-makers is fueled in part by the resurgent cocktail culture, including the growing popularity of ready-to-drink concoctions, as well as strong growth in the tequila and American whiskey segments.
The Financial Impact of Alcohol in America:
As stated in our article – 20 Drunkest States in the US – booze plays an enormous role in the American economy. As of 2021, the total share of the beverage alcohol market in the U.S. represented almost $250 billion and over 3.4 billion cases sold. Beer/FMB/hard seltzer accounted for 43.5% of value share, followed closely by spirits at 39.5%, and wine at a 17% share.
The U.S. alcohol beverage industry is responsible for sustaining more than 4 million jobs and generating almost $70 billion in annual tax revenue. And that doesn’t even scratch the surface of the economic benefits the industry provides to late-night restaurants and pizza shops. According to the Beer Institute, the beer industry alone supports 1.75 million jobs. From the farmers harvesting the barley in your beer, to the beer truck driver, to your local bartender, every aspect of your drink exists because of someone in the alcohol industry working hard behind the scenes.
However, there’s obviously also a downside to the heavy alcohol consumption in America. According to the CDC, excessive drinking costs the country around $249 billion annually, when combining healthcare expenditures, lost earnings and productivity, criminal justice implications, vehicle crashes, property damage, and more. The federal government picks up roughly $100 billion of the tab, largely through Medicare and Medicaid payments. Several evidence-based strategies can help reduce excessive drinking, including increasing alcohol excise taxes, limiting alcohol outlet density, and commercial host liability.
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Is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) The Best Alcohol Stock To Own According to Hedge Funds?
A close-up of an iconic bottle of branded spirit produced by the distillery.
If you’re a whisky lover, you’ve almost certainly tried the offerings of MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI), knowingly or not. This Indiana distillery has fueled the modern American whiskey boom by supplying distillers like High West, Smooth Ambler, WhistlePig, Angel’s Envy, Bulleit, and many others.
MGPI is a pure-play spirits company and has benefited greatly as spirits continue to dominate the American market. The company has boasted a massive increase in revenue over the last few years, from $362.75 million in 2019 to over $836.5 million in 2023 – an increase of over 130%.
For the second quarter of 2024, MGP’s consolidated sales decreased 9% compared to the prior year period to $190.8 million. This is primarily attributed to the closure of its Atchison distillery in December 2023 due to headwinds facing its grain-neutral spirits. However, quarterly gross margins increased to 43.6%, which is an all-time high for the company. The year-to-date cash flow from operations was also recorded at $29.6 million at the end of Q2, up from $20.2 million in the same period last year, mainly due to favorable working capital, including lower barrel put away.
Ariel Investments, an investment management company, stated the following about MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI) in its Q1 2024 investor letter:
“Also in the quarter, we initiated a new position in leading spirits manufacturer, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI). After years of successfully developing products for third parties, MGPI entered the branded spirits business. Leveraging its scale and know-how, MGPI is turning existing relationships into growth stories by acquiring and scaling niche premium brands. A recent strategic decision to shut down a distillery in Kansas and concerns around peak whiskey demand amidst a challenging macro environment have placed pressure on the stock. However, we believe the core business is stable and expect branded spirit acquisitions to drive top-line growth and expand margins longer-term.”
Overall MGPI ranks 9th on our list of the best alcohol stocks to own according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential of MGPI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MGPI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
